Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Houston Dynamo win with a probability of 73.01%. A draw had a probability of 16.4% and a win for St Louis City had a probability of 10.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Houston Dynamo win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.56%) and 2-1 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.74%), while for a St Louis City win it was 0-1 (3.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Houston Dynamo would win this match.