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Colombia national football team
Copa America | Group Stage
Jun 21, 2021 at 1am UK
colombia
Peru national football team
Colombia
1 - 2
Peru
Borja (53' pen.)
Borja (29')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Pena (17'), Mina (64' og.)
Carrillo (43'), Gallese (51')

Preview: Colombia vs. Peru - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Monday's Copa America clash between Colombia and Peru, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Colombia will look to confirm their qualification to the Copa America quarter-finals on Monday, when they take on Peru in group action.

Reinaldo Rueda's side have collected four points from their opening two games in Group A, while their opponents were thrashed 4-0 by Brazil in their only game of the tournament so far.


Match preview

Colombia's Edwin Cardona celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on June 13, 2021© Reuters

Colombia kicked off their Copa America campaign with a narrow win over Ecuador last Monday.

Edwin Cardona netted the only goal of the game on the stroke of half time from a well-worked free kick, and Rueda's men would hold on for the victory despite being outplayed for portions of the game.

In their second game, Colombia took on a Venezuela side with a long list of absentees through positive coronavirus tests, but they were unable to break the deadlock with the game finishing as a goalless draw.

While that was a rather disappointing result and Rueda's side are yet to hit their stride, they do find themselves on the brink of reaching the knockout stage, with four points from their opening two games.

With four sides out of five in the group reaching the next round, Colombia would gain a seven-point lead over Peru with a victory on Monday, booking their spot in the quarter-finals, while they will still aim to finish as high as possible to gain a more favourable quarter-final tie.

They take on a Peru side who will likely compete for the final two qualification spots with Ecuador and Venezuela.

Peru's Gianluca Lapadula and teammates look dejected after the match on November 14, 2020© Reuters

Ricardo Gareca's side suffered a crushing defeat in their opening game on Friday, as they took on host nation Brazil in Rio de Janeiro.

It took just 12 minutes for the favourites to go ahead through Alex Sandro, and they kept a one-goal lead for the majority of the encounter until Neymar doubled the lead in the 70th minute, before goals from Everton Ribeiro and Richarlison in the dying minutes sealed an eye-catching 4-0 win.

Although their morale will have definitely taken a hit from that thrashing, Gareca's men have no time to dwell as they quickly return to action and have a chance to bounce back with what would be a crucial win.

With Ecuador having also lost their opening game and Venezuela sitting on just one point from their two matches, Peru still have every chance of taking one of the spots in the top four, although they may have to gain an extra point over their competitors to counteract their inferior goal difference.

They will look to go into pole position to reach the final eight with a win on Monday, before they play the two most important games against the sides they are battling for third and fourth spots with.

Colombia Copa America form:
  • W
  • D

Colombia form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • D

Peru Copa America form:
  • L

Peru form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L



Team News

Colombia's Miguel Borja celebrates scoring their second goal with teammate Yerry Mina on June 9, 2021© Reuters

Colombia will come into this game without Porto winger Luis Diaz, who will serve a suspension after he was shown a red card in the dying minutes of the goalless draw with Venezuela.

His minutes have been limited, though, with Rueda preferring Juan Cuadrado and Edwin Cardona on the flanks.

The line should again be led by Atalanta duo Luis Muriel and Duvan Zapata, after the pair registered a combined 37 goals and 19 assists in the Italian top flight this season.

Rueda opted to change the defence for the Venezuela clash, with Tottenham Hotspur centre-back Davinson Sanchez returning to the side to reform the established pairing alongside Everton's Yerry Mina at the heart of the back four.

They will be shielded by the solid pairing of Wilmar Barrios and Porto star Mateus Uribe in the middle.

Peru looked uninspiring against Brazil in the absence of experienced forwards Raul Ruidiaz and Paolo Guerrero, after Gareca opted to omit them from the squad.

That should leave Gianluca Lapadula to lead the line again on Monday, while they will rely heavily on winger Christian Cueva's experience going forward.

Despite conceding four last time out, they may look to stick with the established back four of Marcos Lopez, Christian Ramos, Luis Abram and Aldo Corzo on this occasion, shielding Orlando City goalkeeper Pedro Gallese.

Colombia possible starting lineup:
Ospina; Munoz, Mina, Sanchez, Tesillo; Cuadrado, Barrios, Uribe, Cardona; Muriel, Zapata

Peru possible starting lineup:
Gallese; Corzo, Abram, Ramos, Lopez; Yotun, Tapia; Cueva, Pena, Carrillo; Lapadula


SM words green background

We say: Colombia 3-0 Peru

Although Colombia are yet to fully get going in the Copa America this year, Peru looked fairly poor against Brazil, and this could be the best opportunity for La Tricolor to record a convincing win to build momentum for the final eight.

With their place in the quarter-finals all but sealed, they will look to avoid dropping into the lower spots which could draw them against Argentina or Uruguay in the first knockout round, instead battling hard to ensure a top-two finish.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:curl



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colombia win with a probability of 58.94%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Peru had a probability of 17.32%.

The most likely scoreline for a Colombia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.88%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.14%), while for a Peru win it was 0-1 (6.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Colombia vs Peru

Colombia
79.8%
Draw
9.1%
Peru
11.1%
99
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Peru players pictured in November 2020
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Peru Copa America preview - prediction, fixtures, squad, star player
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