Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wuhan Three Towns win with a probability of 44.07%. A win for Shanghai Shenhua had a probability of 28.62% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wuhan Three Towns win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.7%) and 2-0 (8.41%). The likeliest Shanghai Shenhua win was 0-1 (9.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Wuhan Three Towns would win this match.
-0.37) 
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