Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 44.86%. A win for Cangzhou Mighty Lions had a probability of 29.19% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.06%) and 0-2 (8%). The likeliest Cangzhou Mighty Lions win was 1-0 (8.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.