Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 45.82%. A win for Tianjin Jinmen Tiger had a probability of 27.78% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (8.51%). The likeliest Tianjin Jinmen Tiger win was 0-1 (8.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Beijing Guoan in this match.