Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Meizhou Hakka win with a probability of 46.5%. A win for Beijing Guoan had a probability of 28.52% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Meizhou Hakka win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.31%) and 2-0 (7.91%). The likeliest Beijing Guoan win was 0-1 (7.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.