Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shanghai Shenhua win with a probability of 76.61%. A draw had a probability of 14.5% and a win for Changchun Yatai had a probability of 8.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shanghai Shenhua win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.94%) and 2-1 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.81%), while for a Changchun Yatai win it was 1-2 (2.68%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shanghai Shenhua would win this match.