Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sichuan Jiuniu win with a probability of 41.26%. A win for Qingdao Youth Island had a probability of 34.46% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sichuan Jiuniu win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.91%) and 0-2 (6.22%). The likeliest Qingdao Youth Island win was 2-1 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.21%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.