Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 54.66%. A win for Qingdao Youth Island had a probability of 22.78% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.31%) and 0-2 (8.71%). The likeliest Qingdao Youth Island win was 2-1 (5.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.52%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.