Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qingdao Hainiu win with a probability of 39.83%. A win for Qingdao Youth Island had a probability of 35.04% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qingdao Hainiu win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.66%) and 2-0 (6.38%). The likeliest Qingdao Youth Island win was 0-1 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.82%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Qingdao Hainiu would win this match.