Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chengdu Rongcheng win with a probability of 51.52%. A win for Qingdao Hainiu had a probability of 24.72% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chengdu Rongcheng win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.69%) and 0-2 (8.62%). The likeliest Qingdao Hainiu win was 1-0 (6.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chengdu Rongcheng would win this match.