Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shanghai Port win with a probability of 53.28%. A win for Beijing Guoan had a probability of 24.67% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shanghai Port win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.89%) and 2-0 (7.67%). The likeliest Beijing Guoan win was 1-2 (6.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.95%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shanghai Port would win this match.