Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 44.83%. A win for Henan had a probability of 29.88% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 0-1 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.15%) and 0-2 (7.64%). The likeliest Henan win was 1-0 (7.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.