Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 55.63%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Changchun Yatai had a probability of 20.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.09%) and 1-2 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.2%), while for a Changchun Yatai win it was 1-0 (6.42%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.