Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shanghai Shenhua win with a probability of 41.15%. A win for Henan Songshan Longmen had a probability of 29.67% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shanghai Shenhua win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.21%) and 1-2 (7.95%). The likeliest Henan Songshan Longmen win was 1-0 (11.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.