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Attendance: 10,667
Bournemouth logo
Premier League | Gameweek 28
Feb 29, 2020 at 3pm UK
 
Chelsea logo

2-2

Lerma (54'), King (57')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Alonso (33', 85')

Preview: Bournemouth vs. Chelsea - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole provides team news, predicted lineups and a full preview of Saturday's Premier League fixture between Bournemouth and Chelsea.

Chelsea make the trip to the Vitality Stadium to face Bournemouth on Saturday afternoon holding a three-point advantage in the race for fourth spot in the Premier League.

Meanwhile, Bournemouth welcome the Blues looking to end a run of two successive defeats, an achievement which may ensure that they remain out of the relegation zone.


Match preview

Chelsea boss Frank Lampard on December 29, 2019© Reuters

After Chelsea had deservedly got the better of Tottenham Hotspur last weekend, Frank Lampard talked up the performance of his team, who had strengthened their hold of fourth place.

However, courtesy of a 3-0 defeat at the hands of Bayern Munich in the Champions League three days later, the Blues boss was not shy in criticising his players after they had been outclassed in front of their own supporters.

Contrasting post-match interviews have been a common theme for Lampard this season with his team struggling for consistency, and being easily brushed aside by Bayern highlighted how far away that the West Londoners are from the top teams in Europe.

Although the short-term objective is to qualify for next season's competition, Lampard must find a solution to the varying levels of performances, not helped by injuries to key attacking players.

In the absence of the injured Christian Pulisic and Callum Hudson-Odoi, Mason Mount has been forced to occupy a slightly different role in the final third, providing him with more freedom to influence the match.

England's Mason Mount in action against Czech Republic in their Euro 2020 qualifier on October 11, 2019© Reuters

Despite impressing against Spurs, Mount's decision-making was poor against Bayern, something which has blighted this Chelsea side throughout the campaign.

From a defensive perspective, Chelsea were fortunate to only concede three times against their German opponents, with the backline having now kept just seven clean sheets from 39 matches since Lampard's arrival last summer.

Given the amount of time he has now spent with his players, Lampard would have expected bigger improvements than he has witnessed, and that will need to change over the coming months if Chelsea are going to achieve any of their objectives for the season.

At a time when the West Londoners have found themselves on the slide, Eddie Howe has seen his team manage to get themselves out of the drop zone courtesy of victories against Brighton & Hove Albion and Aston Villa.

Nevertheless, the Cherries manager is aware that the club are fortunate not to be back among the bottom three after more setbacks at Sheffield United and Burnley respectively.

Bournemouth manager Eddie Howe before the match on January 21, 2020© Reuters

While there is an argument that Bournemouth were on the receiving end of two debatable VAR calls last weekend, ones which ultimately effected the game, Howe would have been concerned with the capitulation of his team during the second half at Turf Moor.

The negative momentum swing from thinking that they had netted an equaliser through Harry Wilson to the technology awarding a penalty at the other end was natural enough, but the defeat was Bournemouth's 12th in 16 matches.

As a result of the form of their rivals, the South-coast outfit remain two points above the safety line, and there will be motivation to extend that cushion with Aston Villa competing in the EFL Cup final this weekend.

Despite the tough set of fixtures remaining for the season, Howe may feel that an occasion such as the one on Saturday is perfect for his players as they attempt to rediscover the confidence they played with during the early part of the season.

Seven points have also come from their last four matches at their home ground ahead of meetings with the Blues, Crystal Palace and Newcastle United.

Although their away form is as bad as any team in the division, Howe knows that picking up at least six points from their upcoming matches at the Vitality Stadium could prove to be the difference come the middle of May.

Bournemouth Premier League form: LLWWLL
Bournemouth form (all competitions): LWLWLL

Chelsea Premier League form: WLDDLW
Chelsea form (all competitions): DWDLWL


Team News

Olivier Giroud celebrates scoring for Chelsea on February 22, 2020© Reuters

As a result of Tammy Abraham sustaining an injury during Tuesday's cool-down, Olivier Giroud is expected to retain his place in the team.

Lampard is likely to revert to a back four, which could see Kurt Zouma return to partner Antonio Rudiger and Cesar Azpilicueta move out to left-back.

Despite being hauled off after an hour in midweek, Ross Barkley may feature in central midfield, allowing Mount to feature on the left wing with Willian occupying the opposite flank.

Pulisic and Hudson-Odoi remain absent through injury, but Ruben Loftus-Cheek should feature on the substitutes' bench.

As for Bournemouth, Howe will make changes to his first XI, with Steve Cook in line to come back into the defence.

Providing that he has recovered from a back injury, Jefferson Lerma will return to the centre of midfield, potentially at the expense of Andrew Surman.

Bournemouth starting lineup:
Ramsdale; Smith, Cook, Ake, Rico; Gosling, Lerma, Billing; H.Wilson, C.Wilson, King

Chelsea possible starting lineup:
Caballero; James, Zouma, Rudiger, Azpilicueta; Barkley, Jorginho, Kovacic; Willian, Mount; Giroud


Head To Head

Saturday's fixture will represent just the 17th competitive meeting between the two clubs, with Chelsea recording 11 wins in comparison to five victories for Bournemouth.

Despite trailing historically, Bournemouth have prevailed in the last two matches, including by a 4-0 scoreline in the corresponding encounter last season.

Six of the last seven games have ended with the winning team also securing a clean sheet.


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Bournemouth 2-2 Chelsea

Given Chelsea's defeat at Bayern and their humbling in this fixture last year, Bournemouth will be confident of gaining a result on the South coast. We expect goals aplenty, with the Blues perhaps doing enough in the final third to earn a share of the spoils.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a win with a probability of 62.3%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for had a probability of 17.44%.

The most likely scoreline for a win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.72%) and 0-1 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.42%), while for a win it was 2-1 (4.81%).


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