Boasting a 1-0 lead from the first leg thanks to a trademark Olivier Giroud spectacular, Chelsea welcome Atletico Madrid to Stamford Bridge for the second leg of their last-16 Champions League battle on Wednesday evening.
The Blues have one foot in the quarter-finals after claiming a vital narrow win - and away goal - against the La Liga leaders on February 23, and Thomas Tuchel's unbeaten start to life in London is also at stake this week.
The two European superpowers both head into this game on the back of goalless stalemates at the weekend, as Chelsea were held by Leeds United while Atletico could not get the better of Getafe.
Match preview
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Plenty of supporters would pay good money for a DVD compilation of Olivier Giroud's best goals during his time in England, as the veteran Frenchman's outstanding bicycle kick in the 68th minute propelled Chelsea to a famous win in Bucharest during Thomas Tuchel's inaugural European game in charge.
The immediate joy of Giroud's acrobatic effort was extinguished due to a lengthy VAR review, but scenes of unbridled delirium followed once the goal was awarded, and Chelsea - with their newfound defensive solidity under Tuchel - managed to keep Luis Suarez and co from finding the back of the net in a crucial away triumph at the National Arena.
Former Chelsea man Joe Cole in particular was quick to criticise Atletico for being a "shadow" of their usual selves, and while the La Liga leaders were certainly expected to produce a more potent attacking performance, Tuchel's Blues continue to go from strength to strength and fully merited a first-leg advantage ahead of Wednesday's mouthwatering contest.
However, the Blues were unable to build on back-to-back victories over Merseyside rivals Everton and Liverpool as they could only muster a point from their battle with Leeds at the weekend, with Tuchel lamenting the "very difficult conditions" after the match, but yet another clean sheet marked Chelsea's fifth shut-out on the bounce, and their staunch defence has only been breached twice since Tuchel took the reins.
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The German's policy of rotation is clearly paying dividends in the capital, although the often-impenetrable trio of Andreas Christensen, Antonio Rudiger and Cesar Azpilicueta have made themselves undroppable over the past couple of months, and Tuchel remains unbeaten in 12 games since taking charge - winning eight and drawing the other four across all competitions.
Incredibly, Wednesday's hosts are yet to concede a goal at Stamford Bridge during the Tuchel era, but the former Paris Saint-Germain boss could hardly have been handed a more challenging assignment for his first European game in London. However, history certainly favours the 2012 Champions League winners as they dare to dream of another continental crown.
Indeed, Chelsea have never failed to progress in Europe after claiming a first-leg away victory, and Tuchel will hope to follow in the footsteps of nine of Chelsea's last 10 managers who came up trumps in their first continental game at Stamford Bridge, with the recently-sacked Frank Lampard being the exception after losing 1-0 to Valencia in September 2019.
Furthermore, a team from Spain has never managed to get the better of a Tuchel-led outfit - with the 47-year-old winning two and drawing three matches against sides from the Southwestern European nation, although the Blues have taken the spoils in only two of their last eight continental showdowns on their own turf.
The path to the last eight is not a straightforward one for Tuchel's resilient charges, and the visit of an Atletico side swearing vengeance is sure to be a true test of their mettle, but Chelsea have successfully gone toe-to-toe with the big boys since the turn of the year and the Stamford Bridge faithful - who would dearly love to be in the stands for this tie - can afford to watch on from home with prudent optimism this week.
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At one stage of the season, an Atletico side boasting plenty of games in hand seemed to be cruising towards a long-awaited top-flight crown with Real Madrid and Barcelona both flattering to deceive. However, Diego Simeone's side have lost their magic touch at the worst possible moment during the business end of the campaign.
In spite of Allan Nyom's red card with 20 minutes left to play, Getafe followed in Chelsea's footsteps by preventing the capital outfit from making the net ripple at the weekend, and the Wanda Metropolitano outfit have only mustered three wins from nine matches across all competitions since the start of February.
Despite their dip in form, Atletico remain at the top of the pile in Spain's premier division, but Barca and Real Madrid are both hot on their trail and will undoubtedly take advantage of any further slip ups the capital outfit may make. However, domestic fortunes take a back seat for now as Simeone attempts to prevail in the tournament that has so often eluded him.
Two-time runners up in 2014 and 2016, Atletico have failed to progress past the quarter-final stage four seasons in a row after they were sent packing in the last eight by RB Leipzig during the 2019-20 campaign, and their hopes of a first ever Champions League crown will be dashed for another year unless the effervescent Suarez can lead the charge with aplomb on his return to English soil.
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The former Liverpool man has already struck 18 times domestically this term, but he is yet to make his mark on the Champions League having gone five games without opening his European account, so the importance of an inspired showing from the 34-year-old cannot be understated as he prepares to go head-to-head with a man four months his senior in Giroud.
While Atletico have managed to string a four-game unbeaten run together since their first-leg defeat to the Blues, the Spanish powerhouses have prevailed in just two of their last 10 away knockout matches in Europe's elite competition, although both of those wins were at the last-16 stage against Bayer Leverkusen and Liverpool in 2017 and 2020 respectively.
Furthermore, a shock 1-0 defeat to Cornella in the Copa del Rey represents Atletico's sole defeat on rival territory since the turn of the year, and they have navigated their last six away matches in La Liga without defeat - notching up at least two goals in four of those encounters.
With a full contingent available after Kieran Trippier returned from a 10-week suspension, Simeone's side cannot make any excuses for failing to turn up at Stamford Bridge, and it would be very intriguing indeed to see what effect a heartbreaking Champions League exit could have on their bid for La Liga glory in the coming weeks.
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Team News
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The ever-improving Mason Mount and midfield lynchpin Jorginho both picked up bookings in the first leg and will not be available for this showdown , so the well-rested Mateo Kovacic is set to partner N'Golo Kante in the engine room.
Kovacic himself will miss the first leg of the quarter-finals - should Chelsea progress - if he is booked, but Tuchel has little alternative. Hakim Ziyech is also one yellow card away from a ban but could be considered for a start with Mount ruled out.
Tammy Abraham has been ruled out, although he would struggle to earn a start up top anyway, and Thiago Silva will not feature either, but Tuchel's three-man defence of Christensen, Rudiger and Azpilicueta should remain untouched.
Giroud will certainly hope to return to the fold as he aims to make lightning strike twice against Atletico, while Marcos Alonso and Callum Hudson-Odoi are candidates to feature in the wing-back roles after starting in the first-leg victory.
As mentioned, Atletico have no players injured or suspended for this showdown, although there were some concerns over Chelsea-linked goalkeeper Jan Oblak before he started and kept his 15th clean sheet of the season at Getafe.
Trippier will make his return to the capital this week as he starts on the right-hand side of defence, and Simeone has elected to field a four-man rearguard in recent matches, so he may stick with that setup as Atletico seek at least one crucial away goal.
Saul Niguez was hauled off at half time against Getafe but is nailed on to start this game, while his replacement Joao Felix should also earn a recall to the first XI, potentially in place of Yannick Carrasco.
Renan Lodi and Mario Hermoso will battle it out for a spot on the left-hand side of Simeone's backline, but most of the XI who featured from the off against Getafe are set to reprise their roles this week.
Chelsea possible starting lineup:
Mendy; Azpilicueta, Christensen, Rudiger; Hudson-Odoi, Kante, Kovacic, Alonso; Ziyech, Werner; Giroud
Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Trippier, Gimenez, Savic, Lodi; Koke; Felix, Llorente, Saul, Correa; Suarez
Head To Head
Wednesday's second leg represents the ninth meeting between the two teams in all competitions, with Chelsea boasting three wins compared to Atletico's two, and the other three ties have ended with the spoils shared.
Atletico's solitary Champions League victory over the Blues actually came at Stamford Bridge in a 3-1 win during the 2013-14 semi finals, and the last fixture between the sides in the English capital ended 1-1 in the 2017-18 group stage.
Veteran forward Radamel Falcao - who has turned out for both clubs - leads the way in terms of goals with three in this fixture, and all of his strikes came in the 2013 UEFA Super Cup final, which Atletico won 4-1.
We say: Chelsea 1-1 Atletico Madrid
Atletico have been renowned for their defensive prowess throughout the Simeone era, but Chelsea are certainly giving the La Liga leaders a good run for their money in that regard, and a fascinating battle is set to occur in the capital this week.
The visitors simply have to go for goals lest they risk bowing out of the Champions League in disappointing fashion, and while Tuchel's defence may finally be breached on home soil, we expect the Blues to demonstrate their European credentials with a hard-fought draw on their way to the quarter-finals.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 34.98%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 33.4% and a draw had a probability of 31.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.97%) and 2-1 (6.59%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (13.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (14.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.
