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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peterborough United win with a probability of 43.6%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 29.39% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Peterborough United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (8.15%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (9.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Peterborough United would win this match.
Result | ||
Peterborough United | Draw | Derby County |
43.6% | 27% | 29.39% |
Both teams to score 49.07% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
44.14% | 55.86% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
23.02% | 76.98% |
Peterborough United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.57% | 25.42% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.75% | 60.24% |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.81% | 34.19% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.11% | 70.88% |
Score Analysis |
Peterborough United | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 11.9% 2-1 @ 8.75% 2-0 @ 8.15% 3-1 @ 3.99% 3-0 @ 3.72% 3-2 @ 2.14% 4-1 @ 1.37% 4-0 @ 1.27% Other @ 2.3% Total : 43.6% | 1-1 @ 12.77% 0-0 @ 8.69% 2-2 @ 4.69% Other @ 0.84% Total : 27% | 0-1 @ 9.33% 1-2 @ 6.86% 0-2 @ 5.01% 1-3 @ 2.45% 0-3 @ 1.79% 2-3 @ 1.68% Other @ 2.28% Total : 29.39% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 11 | 19 | 45 |
2 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 15 | 22 | 42 |
3 | Sunderland | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 40 |
4 | Burnley | 20 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 24 | 7 | 17 | 38 |
5 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 37 |
6 | Middlesbrough | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 25 | 10 | 34 |
7 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 20 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 32 |
8 | Watford | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 25 | 2 | 31 |
9 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 29 |
10 | Swansea CitySwansea | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 27 |
11 | Bristol City | 21 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 27 |
12 | Norwich CityNorwich | 20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 35 | 30 | 5 | 26 |
13 | Millwall | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 25 |
14 | Derby CountyDerby | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 24 |
15 | Coventry CityCoventry | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 24 |
16 | Preston North EndPreston | 21 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 23 |
17 | Stoke CityStoke | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 22 |
18 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 21 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 22 |
19 | Luton TownLuton | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 23 | 37 | -14 | 22 |
20 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 18 |
21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 32 | -13 | 18 |
22 | Portsmouth | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 17 |
23 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 42 | -23 | 17 |
24 | Hull City | 21 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 16 |
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