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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Millwall win with a probability of 40.59%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 30.97% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Millwall win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.13%) and 2-0 (7.84%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (10.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Millwall | Draw | Derby County |
| 40.59% | 28.44% | 30.97% |
| Both teams to score 45.69% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.53% | 60.47% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.4% | 80.6% |
| Millwall Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.79% | 29.21% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.84% | 65.16% |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.54% | 35.46% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.78% | 72.23% |
| Score Analysis |
| Millwall | Draw | Derby County |
| 1-0 @ 12.74% 2-1 @ 8.13% 2-0 @ 7.84% 3-1 @ 3.34% 3-0 @ 3.22% 3-2 @ 1.73% 4-1 @ 1.03% 4-0 @ 0.99% Other @ 1.57% Total : 40.58% | 1-1 @ 13.21% 0-0 @ 10.35% 2-2 @ 4.22% Other @ 0.65% Total : 28.42% | 0-1 @ 10.73% 1-2 @ 6.85% 0-2 @ 5.57% 1-3 @ 2.37% 0-3 @ 1.92% 2-3 @ 1.46% Other @ 2.07% Total : 30.96% |