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Champions League

Rakow
Champions League | Second Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Jul 26, 2023 at 7.15pm UK
Stadion Rakow
Qarabag

Rakow
3 - 2
Qarabag

Cafarquliyev (55' og.), Piasecki (71'), Kittel (90+1')
Cebula (11')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Xhixha (73', 75')
Benzia (35'), Xhixha (78'), Richard (90+8')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Rakow Czestochowa and Qarabag FK, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Rakow Czestochowa

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Last Game: Flora 0-3 Rakow
Tuesday, July 18 at 6pm in Champions League
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Qarabag FK

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Last Game: Qarabag 4-0 Lincoln
Wednesday, July 19 at 5pm in Champions League
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rakow Czestochowa win with a probability of 47.44%. A win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 27.6% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Rakow Czestochowa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.37%) and 2-0 (8.18%). The likeliest Qarabag FK win was 0-1 (7.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.84%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rakow Czestochowa would win this match.

Result
Rakow CzestochowaDrawQarabag FK
47.44% (0.045000000000002 0.05)24.96% (0.023 0.02)27.6% (-0.067 -0.07)
Both teams to score 54.19% (-0.123 -0.12)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.33% (-0.138 -0.14)48.67% (0.139 0.14)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.21% (-0.126 -0.13)70.78% (0.128 0.13)
Rakow Czestochowa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.44% (-0.037000000000006 -0.04)20.55% (0.038 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.92% (-0.058 -0.06)53.07% (0.059999999999995 0.06)
Qarabag FK Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.21% (-0.122 -0.12)31.78% (0.123 0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.78% (-0.143 -0.14)68.21% (0.14400000000001 0.14)
Score Analysis
    Rakow Czestochowa 47.43%
    Qarabag FK 27.6%
    Draw 24.96%
Rakow CzestochowaDrawQarabag FK
1-0 @ 10.33% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
2-1 @ 9.37% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 8.18% (0.028 0.03)
3-1 @ 4.94% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-0 @ 4.31% (0.010000000000001 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.83% (-0.013 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.96% (-0.004 -0)
4-0 @ 1.71% (0.0010000000000001 0)
4-2 @ 1.12% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 2.69%
Total : 47.43%
1-1 @ 11.84% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 6.53% (0.037 0.04)
2-2 @ 5.37% (-0.018 -0.02)
3-3 @ 1.08% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 24.96%
0-1 @ 7.49% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
1-2 @ 6.79% (-0.015 -0.01)
0-2 @ 4.29% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
1-3 @ 2.59% (-0.015 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.05% (-0.014 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.64% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 2.74%
Total : 27.6%

How you voted: Rakow vs Qarabag

Rakow Czestochowa
49.3%
Draw
23.9%
Qarabag FK
26.9%
67