Champions League

Champions League | Playoffs | 1st Leg

Aug 18, 2021 at 8pm UK

Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Benfica
2 - 1
PSV

(Benfica win 2-1 on aggregate)

Silva (10'), Weigl (42')
Otamendi (58'), Silva (61'), Almeida (75'), Meite (86'), Jesus (90'), Ramos (90+2')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Gakpo (51')
van Ginkel (57'), Obispo (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Benfica and PSV Eindhoven, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 47.24%. A win for PSV Eindhoven had a probability of 27.5% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.32%) and 2-0 (8.3%). The likeliest PSV Eindhoven win was 0-1 (7.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.

Result
Benfica	Draw	PSV Eindhoven
47.24%	25.25%	27.5%

Both teams to score 53.2%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.06%

49.94%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.07%

71.92%

Benfica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.84%

21.15%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.99%

54.01%

PSV Eindhoven Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.48%

32.52%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.95%

69.05%

Score Analysis

Benfica 47.24%

PSV Eindhoven 27.5%

Draw 25.25%

Benfica	Draw	PSV Eindhoven
1-0 @ 10.68% 2-1 @ 9.32% 2-0 @ 8.3% 3-1 @ 4.83% 3-0 @ 4.3% 3-2 @ 2.71% 4-1 @ 1.88% 4-0 @ 1.67% 4-2 @ 1.05% Other @ 2.5% Total : 47.24%	1-1 @ 12% 0-0 @ 6.88% 2-2 @ 5.24% 3-3 @ 1.02% Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.25%	0-1 @ 7.73% 1-2 @ 6.74% 0-2 @ 4.34% 1-3 @ 2.52% 2-3 @ 1.96% 0-3 @ 1.63% Other @ 2.58% Total : 27.5%

How you voted: Benfica vs PSV

Benfica

53.9%

Draw

24.3%

PSV Eindhoven

21.7%