Ceara will welcome Chapecoense on Saturday in the Campeonato Brasileiro and the hosts enter the fixture in 13th place and looking to end a six-game winless run.
Chapecoense are rooted to the bottom of the table after only managing to win one of their 21 league matches, which has left them 13 points adrift of safety.
Match preview
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Ceara have collected 25 points from their 20 league games, which leaves them a point away from a Copa Sudamericana place, although they are not safe from relegation either, as they are only two points clear of danger.
The poor run of form saw Guto Ferreira dismissed as head coach at the end of August following a 2-0 defeat away to America Mineiro, with Tiago Nunes named as his successor.
Fortunes have not changed though, as Nunes lost his first game in charge away to his former club Gremio by a 2-0 scoreline, then last weekend they played out a goalless draw at home to Santos.
The hosts can take comfort from their impressive home record, which has only seen them lose once at the Castelao in the league this season and as a result they have picked up 19 of their 25 points on home turf.
Ceara will look to continue their impressive record at the Castelao and they will take further confidence from the last two home meetings with Chapecoense, winning 3-1 in September 2018 and then in August 2019 they thrashed Saturday's opponents 4-1.
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After winning promotion from the second tier last season, Chapecoense have struggled in their first season back in the top flight, losing 13 times which has resulted in them occupying the 20th and final place in the Campeonato Brasileiro.
They have struggled defensively shipping 34 goals, which is more than any other team in the division and that shaky backline is a major factor as to why they are rock-bottom.
Positively, Chapecoense did pick up their first win of the season two weeks ago when they came from behind against Bragantino to win 2-1 - Mike pulled them level and then Anselmo won the game in the fifth minute of stoppage time.
Unfortunately for Chapecoense they could not build on that victory as they lost last time out to Palmeiras, who scored two goals in the first half to ensure their opponents lost once again.
A crumb of comfort for Saturday's visitors is that they held Ceara to a draw earlier on in the season, although if they are to avoid relegation they will need to convert those draws into victories.
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Team News
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Vitor Jacare is a long-term absentee for the hosts, while Ceara are also without the services of Buiu and Klaus, who have knee and shoulder injuries respectively.
Nunes could make a change up top in a bid to find a lineup capable of scoring goals, as Ceara have not scored in their last three matches, so Jael could make way for Cleber.
Chapecoense have numerous injury concerns and the trio of Ignacio, Tiepo and Vagner are missing with knee injuries.
Head coach Jair Ventura will also have to do without Anderson Leite, Joilson and Ronei, who are all out with thigh problems.
Felipe Santana is also out with an Achilles tendon injury to complete the Chapecoense injury list.
Ceara possible starting lineup:
De Oliveira; Dias, Messias, Otavio, Pacheco; Da Silva, Sobral, Vinicius; Jhonatan, Kelvyn, Cleber
Chapecoense possible starting lineup:
Keiller; Ribeiro, Kadu, Jordan, Busanello; Mike, Leite, Santos, Denner; Perotti, Silva
We say: Ceara 1-1 Chapecoense
Ceara enter the fixture in a poor run of form, but Nunes will know that facing the team bottom of the league presents a wonderful opportunity to pick up three points.
Although Chapecoense have only won one game this season, they have avoided defeat in four of their last six league games and we think facing a side who are out of sorts could result in them getting a point.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ceara win with a probability of 50.85%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Chapecoense had a probability of 22.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ceara win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.17%) and 2-1 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.31%), while for a Chapecoense win it was 0-1 (8.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ceara in this match.
