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Cardiff City logo
Championship | Gameweek 45
Apr 30, 2022 at 3pm UK
Cardiff City Stadium
Birmingham logo

Cardiff
1 - 1
Birmingham

Vaulks (82' pen.)
McGuinness (48'), Drameh (57'), Nelson (67'), Vaulks (76')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Bela (22')
Gordon (58'), Etheridge (82')

Preview: Cardiff City vs. Birmingham City - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Cardiff City and Birmingham City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Cardiff City and Birmingham City meet on Saturday afternoon at the end of disappointing campaigns for both clubs.

The Bluebirds are currently 19th in the Championship table, three points ahead of Blues who sit 20th.


Match preview

Cardiff City's Uche Ikpeazu celebrates after scoring their first goal on March 1, 2022© Reuters

Having faced the threat of relegation in the first half of the campaign, Cardiff had steered themselves away from any danger by mid-February.

But they are now finishing the season in feeble fashion, losing their last four matches and scoring just once in that time.

Steve Morison's side were beaten 2-0 away at Middlesbrough on Wednesday evening, meaning the highest that they can finish is 17th – guaranteeing the club's lowest placing since they were promoted from the third tier 19 years ago.

Only relegated sides Barnsley and Peterborough United have picked up fewer points at home in the Championship this season than Cardiff (24), with the Bluebirds scoring just 21 goals in 22 matches at the Cardiff City Stadium.

Mark McGuinness headed in a 91st-minute equaliser as the Welsh outfit came from two goals down to draw 2-2 at St Andrew's in this season's reverse fixture in December.

Birmingham City manager Lee Bowyer celebrates scoring their first goal on January 30, 2022© Reuters

Birmingham will finish in the Championship bottom eight for the sixth consecutive season, with supporters continuing to voice their concerns about the club's ownership.

The pressure is growing on manager Lee Bowyer now too, with the Blues winning just one of their last eight matches.

Bowyer's side conceded in the 98th minute to draw 2-2 against Millwall last weekend, a result that ended a run of three successive defeats.

Birmingham have recorded just four wins away from home in the Championship this season, triumphing only once in 14 matches on the road since the end of October.

The Blues have won just one of their last 10 meetings with Cardiff and have failed to win on any of their last 12 visits to South Wales to face the Bluebirds or Swansea since 2008.

Cardiff City Championship form:
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L

Birmingham City Championship form:
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • D



Team News

Cardiff City manager Steve Morison on January 30, 2022© Reuters

Cardiff full-back Joel Bagan missed the trip to Middlesbrough through injury so is a doubt, while the game may come too soon for Isaak Davies's return from the sidelines.

It was a frustrating night upfront for Max Watters in midweek, with Mark Harris in contention to replace him in the starting lineup.

Fellow striker Uche Ikpeazu is available for selection again after being ineligible against parent club Boro, but Steve Morison may prioritise giving minutes to players who will be at the club next season.

Birmingham are expected to have Kristian Pedersen back available after he missed out on the draw with Millwall last week, while Taylor Richards has recovered from illness and could also feature.

Tahith Chong returned to training this week after a hamstring injury, but Lee Bowyer has hinted that he will not risk the Manchester United loanee this weekend.

Blues top scorer Scott Hogan has not found the net in his last nine appearances and has started the last two matches on the bench.

Cardiff City possible starting lineup:
Phillips; Drameh, McGuinness, Denham, Nelson, Ng; Wintle, Doyle; Colwill; Hugill, Harris

Birmingham City possible starting lineup:
Etheridge; Roberts, Gordon, Pedersen; Colin, Sunjic, Gardner, Bela; Bacuna; Hernandez, Taylor


SM words green background

We say: Cardiff City 2-1 Birmingham City

Neither side come into this game on good form but Birmingham appear much more in freefall than Cardiff, who are already beginning to plan for next season. The Blues' woeful away record also suggests that they will not get anything from their trip to Wales.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:curl



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 44.39%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 29.38% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.98%) and 2-0 (8.01%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 0-1 (8.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Cardiff vs Birmingham

Cardiff City
42.9%
Draw
47.6%
Birmingham City
9.5%
21
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