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CONCACAF World Cup qualifying permutations: Who can reach Qatar?

Sports Mole looks at the World Cup qualifying permutations for the CONCACAF section ahead of a potentially pivotal round of games for Canada, USA and Mexico.

As domestic football gets put on hold for the first international break of the year, many national teams will be looking to seal their place at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar over the next fortnight.

Three games remain in the CONCACAF section, and no team has yet automatically booked their place at this winter's tournament.

Canada - unbeaten in 11 games so far - are best placed to do so as things stand, boasting a four-point lead over USA and Mexico, and more importantly an eight-point lead over fourth-placed Panama.

All three outstanding matches are due to take place during the current international break, and here Sports Mole looks at the state of play heading into the home straight.

Canada's Cyle Larin celebrates scoring their first goal on January 30, 2022© Reuters



Who plays who on March 24?

The first round of qualifying games during the current international break will take place on Thursday, March 24 - a day which could potentially prove decisive for a few teams.

Here are the games scheduled for March 24:

Jamaica vs. El Salvador
Panama vs. Honduras
Mexico vs. USA
Costa Rica vs. Canada



Who can qualify on March 24?

CANADA

Canada head coach John Herdman celebrates a win over the United States during a CONCACAF FIFA World Cup Qualifier soccer match at Tim Hortons Field on January 30, 2022© Reuters

Canada are already guaranteed a playoff spot at the very least, and it would take an almighty collapse for the unbeaten section leaders to miss out on a first World Cup appearance since 1986, and only their second ever.

Three teams qualify automatically and Canada are eight points clear of fourth with three games remaining, meaning that a win away to fifth-placed Costa Rica would rubber-stamp their place in Qatar.

A draw could be enough if fourth-placed Panama drop points against Honduras, although given their vastly superior goal difference a draw would all but suffice even if Panama do win.

Defeat would see their wait for official confirmation extend for at least another week, but should Panama also lose then once again their goal difference will mean that they have all but qualified anyway.

USA

United States defender Walker Zimmerman (3) reacts after scoring against Honduras during a CONCACAF FIFA World Cup Qualifier soccer match at Allianz Field on February 2, 2022© Reuters

Behind Canada, old rivals USA and Mexico sit level on points in second and third heading into their huge game against each other in Mexico City.

Victory for USA would lift them up to 24 points, which would be enough to book their place at the World Cup if Panama and Costa Rica also drop points.

Should either Panama, Costa Rica or both pick up victories themselves then USA's wait for qualification would go on, although victory on Thursday would leave them in a very strong position to finish the job later in the international break.

MEXICO

Mexico's Raul Jimenez celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on February 2, 2022© Reuters

Mexico find themselves in the same position as the USA, albeit just behind their rivals due to a slightly inferior goal difference.

Should they win in Mexico City on Thursday then they would also qualify if Panama and Costa Rica drop points, although wins for either of the two teams directly behind them would see their wait prolonged.

Defeat for either Mexico or the USA would leave their qualification in much greater doubt, though, with a win for Panama lifting them to within one point of the top three in that scenario.



Who else can still qualify?

PANAMA

Panama players look dejected after the match on February 2, 2022© Reuters

Panama currently sit in the playoff spot, but will look to take advantage of the USA and Mexico facing each other on Thursday to close the gap on the top three.

The Panamanians take on the USA and Canada in their final two games, making Thursday's home game against Honduras all the more important.

Defeat in that game could leave them five points adrift of automatic qualification with just six points to play for, while it would also open the door for Costa Rica to leapfrog them into fourth.

COSTA RICA

Costa Rica's Bryan Oviedo reacts on January 30, 2022© Reuters

Costa Rica are one point behind Panama as things stand and know that a win over Canada in San Jose would be a huge boost to their hopes of making the World Cup.

Should they lose then it could be that the top two places become out of reach for them, while any defeat coupled with a win for Panama would leave them with a mountain to climb in the final two games to even claim a playoff spot.

El Salvador and the USA provide Costa Rica's final two opponents, and any dropped points against Canada would likely leave them needing maximum points from those two games.

EL SALVADOR

El Salvador defender Eduardo Vigil (16) kicks the ball while the United States forward Jesus Ferreira (20) defends during a CONCACAF FIFA World Cup Qualifier soccer match at Lower.com Field on January 27, 2022© Reuters

El Salvador have already been ruled out of automatic qualification, and even a playoff spot looks highly unlikely with three games remaining.

Eight points currently separate them from Panama, meaning that anything other than a win against Jamaica on Thursday would see them ruled out of the running once and for all.

Indeed, anything other than wins in each of their remaining three games will see them miss out on qualification, as would other results going against them.



Who is already out of the running?

JAMAICA

Jamaica have seven points from their 11 games so far, picking up just one win and losing six times to fall an unassailable 10 points behind fourth place with nine points to play for.

HONDURAS

Honduras began their campaign with a credible draw away to Canada, but that is just one of three points they have taken from their 11 winless games so far - a tally which leaves them rooted to the bottom of the standings.


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