Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mamelodi Sundowns win with a probability of 52.96%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Esperance Tunis had a probability of 20.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mamelodi Sundowns win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.09%) and 2-1 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.15%), while for a Esperance Tunis win it was 0-1 (8.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Mamelodi Sundowns in this match.