MX23RW : Saturday, May 25 23:25:13| >> :600:47216177:47216177:
[monks data]
FA Cup | Second Round
Dec 4, 2021 at 12.45pm UK
 
Morecambe

Buxton
0 - 1
Morecambe


Elliott (45+1'), Meikle (50')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Stockton (29')

Preview: Buxton vs. Morecambe - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Buxton and Morecambe, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Seventh-tier Buxton will be hoping to cause a famous upset when they host Football League outfit Morecambe in the FA Cup second round on Saturday.

The Bucks are currently fourth in the Northern Premier League, four divisions below the Shrimps who are 20th in League One.


Match preview

A general shot of the FA Cup trophy ahead of the 2019 final on May 18, 2019© Reuters

Buxton are the lowest-ranked team left in this year's competition and have made it to the second round for the first time in 63 years.

The Bucks have already beaten Sherwood Colliery, Rushall Olympic, City of Liverpool, Kettering Town and York City to get to this stage.

Diego De Girolamo scored a dramatic 85th-minute winner away at the Minstermen, who are a tier above Buxton, in round one, which was Steve Cunningham's first match in charge.

De Girolamo, a former Sheffield United academy prospect, says that the Bucks will go into Saturday's game with no fear, believing that they can cause an upset.

Backed by a packed crowd at the Silverlands, the Derbyshire outfit will be aiming to make it to round three for only the second time in their history.

Morecambe's Cole Stockton celebrates scoring their first goal against Blackburn Rovers in the EFL Cup on August 10, 2021© Reuters

Following a 4-0 defeat to MK Dons in League One last weekend, Morecambe manager Stephen Robinson has admitted that his side "need to learn quickly" to avoid being embarrassed in this tie.

The Shrimps are two points above the relegation zone in the third tier and have won just two of their last 12 games in all competitions.

One of those was their 1-0 victory over Newport County in round one in which substitute Aaron Wildig scored with his first touch.

Morecambe have only made the third round on four previous occasions, including last season when they lost to Chelsea.

The Lancashire side have the worst defence in League One this season with 37 goals conceded, while they have lost five of their last six away matches in all competitions.

Buxton FA Cup form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W

Buxton form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • D

Morecambe FA Cup form:
  • W

Morecambe form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • L



Team News

Motherwell manager Stephen Robinson pictured in April 2018© Reuters

Six of Buxton's last seven goals have been scored by either Diego De Girolamo or Jamie Ward, so they are the most likely to be heroes on Saturday.

35-year-old Ward is a former Northern Ireland international who has made over 400 Football League appearances for clubs such as Sheffield United, Derby County and Nottingham Forest.

Halifax Town loanee Dom Tear made his full debut for Buxton in their last game against Nantwich Town so could also be one to look out for.

Morecambe will hope to have top scorer Cole Stockton back available after he missed last week's defeat to MK Dons through injury.

Stockton has netted 15 goals in all competitions this season; Adam Phillips (six) is the only other player in the squad to score more than two.

Jonathan Obika, Aaron Wildig, Josh McPake and Kyle Letheren all played in a reserve team match on Tuesday as they near a return from injury.

Buxton possible starting lineup:
Richardson; Curley, Middleton, Granite, Fox; Meikle, Dawson; Tear, Ward, Clarke; De Girolamo

Morecambe possible starting lineup:
Andresson; McLaughlin, O'Connor, Delaney, Leigh; Phillips, McCalmont, Jones; Ayunga, Stockton, Gnahoua


SM words green background

We say: Buxton 1-3 Morecambe

As much as we would love to predict an upset here, we do think that Morecambe's higher-level quality should see them through the tie. Expect it to be nervy for the League One outfit though, particularly if they do not make a fast start to the game.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Away Win:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Morecambe win with a probability of 58.67%. A win for Buxton had a probability of 20.83% and a draw had a probability of 20.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Morecambe win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.08%) and 0-1 (7.57%). The likeliest Buxton win was 2-1 (5.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.12%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Morecambe would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Buxton vs Morecambe

Buxton
29.4%
Draw
47.1%
Morecambe
23.5%
17
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General view of Morecambe's Globe Arena from 2016
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