Burnley will endeavour to secure their third win on the bounce in all competitions when they welcome European outsiders Aston Villa to Turf Moor for Wednesday's Premier League battle.
Sean Dyche's men have propelled themselves up to 15th in recent weeks, while Aston Villa sit eighth, having played two games fewer than seventh-placed West Ham United.
Match preview
© Reuters
Liverpool's unbeaten run at home was there to be broken amid their torrid winless run, but not even Burnley fans would have placed bets on their side becoming the first away team to win a Premier League game at Anfield since April 2017.
Nevertheless, Dyche's men secured a historic win on the Merseyside turf through Ashley Barnes's sweetly-struck penalty, and Liverpool just could not find a way through a Burnley defence which demonstrated a very familiar resolve last Thursday.
The Clarets' memorable triumph over Liverpool saw them secure their first Premier League points of 2021 after back-to-back 1-0 defeats to Manchester United and West Ham United, and the hosts now find themselves seven clear of the drop zone having lost just three of their last nine top-flight matches.
Burnley followed up that victory at Anfield with a resounding 3-0 win over Fulham in the FA Cup, with Jay Rodriguez staking his claim for a starting place with two goals at Craven Cottage, and Kevin Long also struck a rare goal for an inspired Burnley.
The signs are wholly positive for Dyche and co, who had won four of their last five matches in all competitions at Turf Moor before United's victory earlier in the month, although a measly five league goals scored at home is the joint lowest in the division alongside West Bromwich Albion.
© Reuters
Aston Villa manager Dean Smith "reluctantly" accepted a touchline ban for his dismissal against Manchester City, but the West Midlands outfit did not need their manager barking orders from the dugout to secure a 2-0 win over lowly Newcastle United last week.
Ollie Watkins ended his nine-game goal drought while the impressive Bertrand Traore notched up his fourth of the Premier League season on a near-perfect night for Villa, who ended a three-game losing run across all competitions with that triumph.
Villa's first victory of the calendar year comes after their squad had been decimated by a major coronavirus outbreak, but the players showed no ill effects from that cluster as they kept themselves in the mix for a European berth - with four points now separating Smith's men from fifth-placed Tottenham Hotspur, who have played a game more.
Spurs and Manchester City are the only two sides who have shipped fewer goals than Villa so far this season, and while they have managed to take just one point from their last three away matches, those games were against Chelsea, Man City and Man United.
The first meeting between the two teams this season ended goalless, but the hosts have only ever managed to beat Aston Villa once in the Premier League, while the visitors have failed to keep a clean sheet on Burnley's turf since 1920.
Burnley Premier League form: WLWLLW
Burnley form (all competitions): WWLLWW
Aston Villa Premier League form: WWDLLW
Aston Villa form (all competitions): WDLLLW
Team News
© Reuters
Burnley lost Charlie Taylor to yet another injury in the second half against Liverpool - the left-back missed out against Fulham and Dyche has conceded that he will probably not be back in time for Wednesday.
Erik Pieters will therefore continue to deputise in defence, while further changes from the cup win should see Nick Pope, Ben Mee and Ashley Westwood all return, but Robbie Brady is a doubt with a knock.
Rodriguez will certainly hope to have done enough to displace Chris Wood up top, but the latter has scored in three of his in four top-flight starts against Villa and will not relinquish his place without a fight.
Villa will welcome John McGinn back from suspension for this tie, and while it would be harsh to drop Marvelous Nakamba after his stellar showing against Newcastle, the Zimbabwean is expected to make way.
Kortney Hause remains doubtful with an ankle problem, but McGinn should be the only change from the side that comfortably dispatched Newcastle on Saturday.
Smith's side are closing in on a deal to sign Morgan Sanson from Marseille, Olympiens manager Andre Villas-Boas has confirmed, and the club are expected to announce the midfielder's arrival in the coming days.
Burnley possible starting lineup:
Pope; Lowton, Tarkowski, Mee, Pieters; Brady, Brownhill, Westwood, McNeil; Wood, Barnes
Aston Villa possible starting lineup:
Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Mings, Targett; Luiz, McGinn; Traore, Barkley, Grealish; Watkins
We say: Burnley 0-2 Aston Villa
Aston Villa boast goals in abundance and have also become renowned for their clean sheets on the road this term, so this should be a more entertaining affair than the goalless stalemate back in December. Burnley's new-found confidence should serve them well in this fascinating battle, but we are backing the Europa League-chasing visitors to produce the goods and take all three points.
Top betting tip
Video prediction
Watch the Sports Mole Football Shorts prediction for this game below:
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 44.73%. A win for Burnley had a probability of 29.11% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.01%) and 0-2 (8.07%). The likeliest Burnley win was 1-0 (8.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.
