Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hoffenheim win with a probability of 41.71%. A win for Augsburg had a probability of 35.1% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hoffenheim win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.65%) and 2-0 (5.65%). The likeliest Augsburg win was 1-2 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.25%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hoffenheim would win this match.