Bristol City welcome Cardiff City to Ashton Gate for the Severnside derby on Saturday, with both sides struggling to find form in the Championship.
Cardiff have begun to show positive signs recently since Mick McCarthy's appointment as manager, coming back in their last two games to seal draws, while the home side have lost consecutive league games leading up to this encounter.
Match preview
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After a strong start to the Championship campaign, Dean Holden has seen his side's form take a notable dip since the middle of December, having only picked up nine points from their last 10 league matches.
As a result, the Robins now sit in ninth place in the Championship, only three points off the playoffs due to the poor form of Bournemouth, who currently occupy sixth spot.
Last time out, Holden's side fell to a 3-2 away defeat against second-placed Brentford, a slightly more encouraging sign for Bristol City as they came close against one of the favourites for promotion to the top flight.
It was the Robins who took a very early lead, when Zak Vyner popped up at the back post from a curling Jack Hunt free kick.
However, Brentford then kicked into gear and turned the game around with goals from Sergi Canos, Ivan Toney and Saman Ghoddos, and by the time substitute Nahki Wells pulled a goal back for the visitors in added time, it was too late to salvage a point.
Before that result, Holden's team lost 1-0 to strugglers Derby County, with a Colin Kazim-Richards goal after four minutes going on to decide the match.
They will be hopeful of turning their form around in this game, against a Cardiff side who are yet to get going this campaign.
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The Bluebirds had a poor start to the season under Neil Harris, leading to his dismissal in late January after six consecutive losses in all competitions.
Since then, Mick McCarthy has taken charge of the Welsh side, drawing his first two games at the helm.
In his first game, Cardiff went 2-0 down away at Barnsley, before goals from Sheyi Ojo and Kieffer Moore in the second half salvaged a point for McCarthy's men.
That was followed by a 1-1 draw with Millwall at the Cardiff City Stadium, when Cardiff defender Aden Flint turned the ball into his own net after nine minutes. Top scorer Moore then popped up with his second goal in as many games to equalise and save a point for his side.
Although they have given away early goals in both games, McCarthy will be encouraged by the resilience of his new side, twice coming from behind to seal a result, and they will hope to put a first win on the board under their new manager in this game.
Bristol City Championship form: LWLWLL
Bristol City form (all competitions): WLWWLL
Cardiff City Championship form: LLLLDD
Cardiff City form (all competitions): LLLLDD
Team News
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The hosts picked up Henri Lansbury from Aston Villa late in the January transfer window, adding experience and a touch of quality to their midfield.
Defender Adrian Mariappa also arrived at Ashton Gate in January, joining on a free transfer from Watford.
The Robins remain without attacker Andreas Weimann, who is carrying a long-term ligament injury, while full-back Steven Sessegnon is also yet to appear since the turn of the year with an injury.
Nahki Wells will be looking to earn his place back in the starting lineup for this game, scoring off the bench in the eventual loss to Brentford last time out.
Kieffer Moore has two goals in two games since Mick McCarthy took over as Cardiff manager, and the Welsh international will lead the line for them in this game.
His compatriot Harry Wilson has struggled to find a starting place, yet to start under McCarthy despite him recording three goals and six assists in 19 Championship appearances this season.
The Bluebirds brought midfielder Jonny Williams into the club in January, offering more depth going forward.
Perry Ng has impressed since he signed from Crewe Alexandra in the January window, with the right-back starting both games under McCarthy.
The side from Wales switched to a back three in their most recent game, accommodating Sean Morrison, Aden Flint and Curtis Nelson at the back, and we expect their manager to stick with this system.
Bristol City possible starting lineup:
Bentley; Hunt, Kalas, Mawson, Mariappa; Semenyo, Vyner, Nagy, Edwards; Wells, Diedhiou
Cardiff City possible starting lineup:
Smithies; Morrison, Flint, Nelson; Ng, Vaulks, Bacuna, Ralls, Bennett; Ojo, Moore
We say: Bristol City 1-2 Cardiff City
We can see Cardiff getting a much-needed win in this game, taking advantage of a Bristol City side lacking form, as the Bluebirds look to ensure that they avoid slipping any closer to the battle at the bottom of the Championship.
We expect Kieffer Moore to feature on the scoresheet once again, helping drive his side to a narrow victory.
Top betting tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 41.79%. A win for Bristol City had a probability of 30.56% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.45%) and 0-2 (7.91%). The likeliest Bristol City win was 1-0 (10%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cardiff City would win this match.
