Brisbane Roar and Adelaide United meet on Sunday looking to book their place in the last four of the A-League Finals Series.
These two sides finished in fourth and fifth place respectively during the regular campaign, despite prevailing in less than half of their 26 fixtures.
Match preview
Despite failing to build on their bright start to the season, Warren Moon and his Brisbane Roar squad can be delighted with their efforts this season.
Even though they endured an eight-match winless streak during February and March, they regularly got points on the board to keep them in the hunt for the top six.
Prevailing in three of their last five fixtures eventually secured fourth position, a run which included a 3-0 victory over already-crowned champions Melbourne City.
Moon will be happy with possessing the second-best defensive record in the division, but none of this squad have scored more than nine goals this season.
On the plus side, leading marksman Riku Danzaki has netted twice in his last four outings, a much-needed boost for a team who lost to Adelaide as recently as May 16.
Craig Goodwin scored the only goal of the game on that occasion, helping his team to one of just two wins from the last 10 matches.
While Goodwin is the club's top goalscorer with eight strikes, two teammates have chipped in with seven efforts of their own, and Adelaide ended the regular season with the second-best attacking record in the top six.
However, Carl Veart witnessed his side concede 41 goals, six of which came in the last two fixtures against Sydney FC and Western Sydney Wanderers.
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Team News
Despite defeat to Sydney FC last time out, Moon is expected to keep alterations down to a minimum for this fixture.
Rahmat Akbari could return in place of Jesse Daley in midfield, while Macaulay Gillesphey is expected to feature in defence after injury.
Jordan Elsey will return to the Adelaide squad after serving a one-match suspension for his dismissal against Sydney.
Tomi Juric could replace Alhassan Toure in attack with Joshua Cavallo also pushing for an outing in the first XI.
Brisbane Roar possible starting lineup:
Young; Neville, Trewin, Gillesphey; Brindell-South, O'Shea, Akbari, Brown; Parsons, Danzaki, Wenzel-Halls
Adelaide United possible starting lineup:
Delianov; Strain, Elsey, Jakobsen, Kitto; Lopez, Mauk, D'Arrigo; Halloran, Juric, Goodwin
We say: Brisbane Roar 2-1 Adelaide United
With both teams offering no consistency in recent weeks, this feels like a difficult match to call. Given Adelaide's poor away form during the season as a whole, we feel inclined to back Roar, potentially by the odd goal in three.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 37.98%. A win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 37.78% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.42%) and 0-2 (5.59%). The likeliest Brisbane Roar win was 2-1 (8.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Adelaide United in this match.
