Birmingham City Women are edging ever closer to relegation from the Women's Super League, currently sitting seven points adrift with four games left to play this season.
The 12th-placed side travel to the People's Pension Stadium on Saturday, when they will face Brighton & Hove Albion Women, who are set for a comfortable mid-table finish.
Match preview
© Reuters
Hope Powell's team endured a difficult period between November and March, during which time they did not record a single win, but a recent upturn in form has helped the Seagulls move back up to sixth spot.
They could not record back-to-back wins last time out, though, as they fell to a 1-0 defeat at Leigh Sports Village against Manchester United before the international break.
The visitors on that day did struggle to contain the Red Devils, who created 20 chances in front of Brighton's goal, but they are certain to face a different type of test this weekend, when the hosts are expected to dominate possession.
Brighton only have three games remaining this season, and while they only sit three points behind Tottenham Hotspur in fifth, Spurs have two games in hand on Brighton, who are unlikely to better their sixth-placed finish from last year.
West Ham and Reading are hot on the heels of Brighton, and as much as they are doubtful to better their current position, they will be keen to make sure that they do not fall below sixth place.
© Reuters
Sunday's match can be viewed as a must-win encounter for Birmingham, who have games against Chelsea and Manchester City to come, before ending the campaign with a West Midlands derby against Aston Villa.
Darren Carter's side are determined to not go down without a fight, and they showed that character last time out, when they earned a 0-0 draw against Everton at St Andrew's stadium.
The Toffees tested Birmingham's defence, registering 18 shots in total, but unlike many other times during the campaign, the Blues managed to keep a clean sheet, only their second of the year.
Birmingham's defensive displays can be partly to blame for their current position, but they are the league's lowest scorers, having netted just 11 goals in 18 matches, which has not aided their quest to survive in the top flight.
This will be the third meeting between these two teams this season, with Brighton getting the better of Birmingham on both previous occasions, once in the reverse WSL fixture and once in the League Cup group stages.
- L
- W
- W
- L
- W
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- D
- L
- W
- L
- L
- L
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Brighton's Ellie Brazil will be absent from the hosts' squad this weekend and for the foreseeable future as she starts her recovery from a knee injury, after featuring in every WSL game this season.
Striker Danielle Carter had played her part in every match before their Man United encounter last time out, when Geum-Min Lee came back into the starting 11 to lead the line solely.
Katie Startup has made her only two appearances for Brighton in the last two games, and she is expected to continue between the posts in place of number one goalkeeper Megan Walsh.
Birmingham's number one keeper, Emily Ramsey, made her first appearance against Everton since injury ruled her out from February onwards, and she is a welcomed return behind a back five consisting of Abbie Cowie, Harriet Scott, Louise Quinn, Gemma Lawley and Jamie Finn.
Rebecca Holloway had been a main figure in Birmingham's lineups this season, but the Northern Ireland international has left the club to join Racing Louisville, meaning that Cowie has come into the side in her absence.
Striker Sarah Ewens, who has not featured since the middle of February, has returned to training and is in contention to play on Saturday, although, her impact could be from the bench which will mean that Eleanor Ryan-Doyle continues to partner Libby Smith up top.
Brighton & Hove Albion Women possible starting lineup:
Startup; Kullberg, Williams, Kerkdijk, Le Tissier; Simpkins; Gibbons, Olme, Whelan, Koivisto; Lee
Birmingham City Women possible starting lineup:
Ramsey; Cowie, Scott, Louise Quinn, Lawley, Finn; Lucy Quinn, Murray, Sarri; Smith, Ryan-Doyle
We say: Brighton & Hove Albion Women 2-1 Birmingham City Women
Birmingham are expected to travel to Crawley and put in a fighting performance, which is why they could cause Brighton some problems and get themselves on the scoresheet.
However, the Seagulls should have enough experience and quality to be able to deal with anything the visitors throw at them, and that will help them collect maximum points this weekend.
Top tip
Sammy Wynne
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brighton & Hove Albion Women win with a probability of 67.6%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Birmingham City Women had a probability of 14.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brighton & Hove Albion Women win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.71%) and 1-0 (8.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.3%), while for a Birmingham City Women win it was 1-2 (4.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.
