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Brentford logo
Championship | Gameweek 40
Apr 6, 2021 at 7pm UK
Griffin Park
Birmingham logo

Brentford
0 - 0
Birmingham

FT

Preview: Brentford vs. Birmingham City - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Championship clash between Brentford and Birmingham City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Brentford will be looking to get their Championship automatic promotion prospects back on track when they host Birmingham City on Tuesday evening.

The Bees have drawn three games in a row to lose ground on the top two, while Birmingham will be full of confidence after beating Swansea City last time out.


Match preview

Brentford manager Thomas Frank pictured on March 3, 2021© Reuters

Thomas Frank's side occupied one of the automatic promotion spots after beating Stoke City 2-1 on February 27, but they have taken just six points from a possible 15 since then.

That includes a run of three successive draws against Derby County, Nottingham Forest and Huddersfield Town.

Lewis O'Brien profited from a mix-up between David Raya and Mads Roerslev to put Huddersfield ahead on Saturday, but Mads Sorensen did at least rescue a point in the second half.

A point may not be good enough for Brentford in the grand scheme of things, however, as it leaves them nine points off Watford, albeit with a game in hand on the side in second.

That gap may well become bigger come kickoff on Tuesday, with Watford - who still have to travel to Brentford Community Stadium - away at Middlesbrough on Easter Monday.

Birmingham City manager Lee Bowyer pictured on March 17, 2021© Reuters

Brentford have lost just one of their last 16 league games on home soil, though they were held by Forest last time out in West London.

Birmingham may be 28 points worse off than their opponents down in 20th place, but they head into this game on the back of a 1-0 win over Swansea to boost their survival chances.

Scott Hogan's injury-time penalty, after Lukas Jutkiewicz had earlier failed to convert from the spot, earned the Blues a second win in three games under new boss Lee Bowyer.

However, City have accrued just four points from the last 18 available away from home in the Championship, having gained five points from their previous three (W1 D2).

The Blues won 1-0 on their most recent visit to Brentford, though, and are without defeat in five against the Bees overall in the league.

Brentford Championship form:
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • D

Birmingham City Championship form:
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W



Team News

Ivan Toney celebrates scoring for Brentford against Blackburn Rovers in the Championship on March 12, 2021© Reuters

Mathias Jensen was a second-half substitute against Huddersfield and is in contention for a recall here, possibly in place of Saman Ghoddos.

Full-back Henrik Dalsgaard has a chance of returning from injury in time for Tuesday's game, but Shandon Baptiste, Josh Dasilva and Rico Henry are all out.

Ivan Toney is a certain starter up top as he aims to add to a return of 17 direct goal involvements in his last 17 home games for Brentford - 14 goals and seven assists.

As for the visitors, Bowyer has no known injury doubts for the trip to West London.

Hogan may be considered for a place in the XI after scoring a penalty from the bench last time out, which would likely mean Jonathan Leko dropping out.

Versatile defender George Friend is another contender to come into the side to provide some fresh legs on the left flank.

Brentford possible starting lineup:
Martin; Rasmussen, Reid, Jansson, Sorensen; Norgaard, Jensen, Janelt; Mbuemo, Toney, Canos

Birmingham City possible starting lineup:
Etheridge; Dean, Roberts, Pedersen; Colin, Sunjic, Harper, Friend; Halilovic; Hogan, Jutkiewicz


SM words green background

We say: Brentford 1-1 Birmingham City

Brentford have drawn three games in a row and their automatic promotion hopes are fast fading.

Birmingham have won two of their last three to move six points above the dropzone, meanwhile, and we can see them going a sixth game without defeat against the Bees here.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Written by
Daniel Lewis

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brentford win with a probability of 63.72%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Birmingham City had a probability of 13.64%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brentford win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.65%) and 2-1 (9.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.36%), while for a Birmingham City win it was 0-1 (5.88%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Brentford vs Birmingham

Brentford
73.6%
Draw
18.2%
Birmingham City
8.2%
110
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Birmingham City manager Lee Bowyer pictured on March 17, 2021
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