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Colombia national football team
World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Oct 10, 2021 at 10pm UK
colombia
Brazil national football team

Colombia
0 - 0
Brazil


Lerma (48'), Borre (63')
FT

Preview: Colombia vs. Brazil - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Colombia and Brazil, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

South American giants Brazil will be looking to claim their 10th successive victory in World Cup Qualifying when they travel to Barranquilla to face Colombia on Sunday.

The Selecao have accumulated a maximum 27 points from their nine matches so far, while the hosts sit 13 points further back, after securing only three wins from their 10 qualifiers.


Match preview

Brazil's Gabriel Barbosa celebrates scoring against Venezuela on October 7, 2021© Reuters

Brazil's perfect record in qualifying remains intact, though they had fight back from a goal down to beat Venezuela 3-1 away from home on Friday.

Eric Ramirez headed the hosts into a surprise lead in the 11th minute, just the third goal Brazil have conceded in Qualifying. Tite's side dominated for large spells but struggled to get back on level terms until the 71st minute, when Marquinhos headed in from a corner taken by Raphinha, who came off the bench to make his international debut.

In the final five minutes, Brazil's Gabriel Barbosa was brought down inside the penalty area, and the Flamengo forward stepped up to convert form 12 yards, before Raphinha provided another assist, this time for fellow substitute Antony, who tapped in from close range in stoppage time to seal the victory.

After Argentina could only draw against Paraguay, the Selecao have extended their lead at the top of the table to eight points, and their impressive run of appearing in every World Cup tournament is set to continue.

Excluding the suspended encounter against Argentina, Colombia are the only South American side Brazil are yet to face in Qualifying. Their last meeting was at this summer's Copa America, where Tite's men had to come from behind to win 2-1 in the group stage, with Roberto Firmino scoring a dramatic 100th minute winner.

Brazil have only won five of their last 12 meetings against Colombia across all competitions, so they cannot be taken lightly on Sunday, though the Selecao will still be expected to come away with all three points.

Colombia's Davinson Sanchez with teammates after the match against Paraguay on September 5, 2021© Reuters

For the first time since 2001, Colombia came away from Uruguay undefeated when they played out a goalless draw in Montevideo on Friday.

Considering they were beaten 3-0 in the reverse fixture in November 2020, Reinaldo Rueda will be pleased that his side came away with at least a point this time around, though another draw – their fourth in the last five qualifiers – means they remain just outside the top four.

Los Cafeteros currently occupy fifth place, the inter-confederation playoff spot, and are two points behind both Ecuador in third and Uruguay in fourth.

With an encounter against Ecuador sandwiched in between two qualifiers against Brazil to come, Rueda will feel that his side need to claim some points during this challenging run, to ensure they remain within touching distance of the top four and that their hopes of reaching a third successive World Cup finals remain alive.

In 13 attempts, Colombia have never beaten Brazil in World Cup Qualifying, though four of the last six games have ended in a draw, including three stalemates.

Securing three points on Sunday is unlikely but not impossible for Los Cafeteros and a win would see them climb above next Thursday's opponents Ecuador, if they were to lose to Venezuela.

Colombia World Cup Qualifying - South America form:
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • D

Colombia form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • D

Brazil World Cup Qualifying - South America form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

Brazil form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W


Team News

Neymar celebrates scoring for Brazil on June 17, 2021© Reuters

Despite Rueda deciding against a late call up for Rangers striker Alfredo Morelos to join the squad, Colombia still have plenty of attacking options to choose from.

Radamel Falcao and Rafael Santos Borre were both handed starts against Uruguay and could remain in the first XI, though it is likely that one of Duvan Zapata or Roger Martinez will be brought in to start up front on Sunday.

Rueda will be tempted to stick with the same back four that claimed a clean sheet on Friday, however Tottenham Hotspur's, Davinson Sanchez is expected to return to the heart of the defence, replacing Carlos Cuesta.

Wingers Juan Cuadrado and Luis Diaz, as well as central midfielders Wilmar Barrios and Mateus Uribe are set to remain in the starting lineup, with the likes of Juan Fernando Quintero and Jefferson Lerma options on the bench.

As for the visitors, Chelsea centre-back Thiago Silva could make his 100th international appearance for Brazil, starting alongside Marquinhos at the heart of the defence.

Considering the Selecao played on Friday, Tite may decide to make a few changes to his starting lineup, which could see full-backs Danilo and Guilherme Arana replaced by Emerson Royal and Alex Sandro, while goalkeeper Ederson may get the nod over Alisson Becker.

After Casemiro pulled out of the Brazil squad due to an infection in a wisdom tooth, Fabinho and Gerson could remain in central midfield, though the likes of Fred and Douglas Luiz will be hoping they can force their way into the first XI.

Brazilian talisman Neymar is back in contention to play after missing the last match through suspension, and the 29-year-old, along with Raphinha, could be handed a start in attack, replacing Gabriel Jesus and Everton Ribeiro.

Colombia possible starting lineup:
Ospina; Medina, Sanchez, Mina, Tesillo; Cuadrado, Barrios, Uribe, Diaz; Zapata, Falcao

Brazil possible starting lineup:
Ederson; Emerson, Marquinhos, Thiago Silva, Sandro; Luiz, Fabinho, Paqueta; Raphinha, Barbosa, Neymar


SM words green background

We say: Colombia 1-2 Brazil

Encounters over the years between Colombia and Brazil have regularly been decided by the odd goal, and we expect another closely-fought contest to be played out in Barranquilla.

With the return of Neymar, the visitors will pose an even greater threat in the final third and should have enough quality in their side to claim all three points on Sunday and their 10th successive win in qualifying.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brazil win with a probability of 48.4%. A win for Colombia had a probability of 27.37% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brazil win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.49%) and 0-2 (7.96%). The likeliest Colombia win was 1-0 (6.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.4%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Colombia vs Brazil

Colombia
11.1%
Draw
18.1%
Brazil
70.8%
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