Brazil and Peru will lock horns at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos in Rio de Janeiro on Monday evening, with a spot in the final of the Copa America on offer for both teams.
Peru beat Paraguay on penalties in the quarter-finals to advance to the final four, while hosts Brazil recorded a 1-0 victory over Chile to ensure that they would be present in the semi-finals of this summer's tournament.
Match preview
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Brazil's quarter-final clash with Chile was a cagey affair, but Lucas Paqueta's effort in the early stages of the second half ultimately proved enough for the host nation to secure their spot in the semi-finals.
Tite's side actually had Gabriel Jesus sent off for a high kick on Eugenio Mena in the 48th minute, and Chile came close to a leveller when Ben Brereton's header hit the crossbar; Selecao are in the last four, though, and will be looking to defend the trophy that they lifted in 2019.
Brazil disappointed in the Copa America between 2011 and 2016, being eliminated in the quarter-finals on two occasions, in addition to failing to make it out of the group stage in 2016. The South American nation beat Peru in the 2019 final, though, and will now take on the same opponents in the semi-finals two years later.
The five-time world champions comfortably topped Group B, collecting 10 points from their four matches, scoring 10 times and conceding twice, and it would certainly be a surprise if they failed to progress to the final of this year's competition.
Brazil have already beaten Peru in this tournament, recording a 4-0 victory in Rio de Janeiro on June 17, and they have only lost five of their previous 49 matches with their South American rivals in all competitions, which is an indication of the size of the task facing Ricardo Gareca's side.
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Peru are unquestionably the underdogs heading into this semi-final, but it would be fair to say that they have impressed many with their performances at this year's Copa America.
Aside from the 4-0 loss to Brazil, the White and Reds beat Colombia and Venezuela in the group stages, in addition to drawing with Ecuador, which saw them finish second in Group B behind their opponents here.
Peru's quarter-final with Paraguay in Goias was a sensational affair, with the two teams playing out a 3-3 draw before Gareca's side recorded a 4-3 win on penalties.
La Blanquirroja, as mentioned, reached the 2019 final, while they finished third at both the 2011 and 2015 competitions, which demonstrates their experience at this stage of the Copa America.
Peru have not won this tournament since 1975, though, and they will need a lot to go in their favour on Monday evening in order to overcome the hosts and advance to the final at Maracana Stadium.
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Team News
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Brazil will be unable to call upon Gabriel Jesus for the semi-final, as the Manchester City forward received a straight red card in his side's quarter-final contest with Chile last time out.
As a result, the goalscorer from the last-eight affair - Paqueta - is likely to come in for a start, but it could otherwise be the same XI that lined up for the first whistle against Chile.
Fred has been in impressive form for Brazil this summer and should start alongside Casemiro in the middle of the mark, while Richarlison and Roberto Firmino should join Neymar in the final third of the field.
Tite has another big decision to make between the sticks, as he has both Ederson and Alisson Becker competing for the gloves, but the Manchester City goalkeeper could retain his spot here.
As for Peru, Andre Carrillo was sent off in the latter stages of normal time against Paraguay and will therefore be suspended for the semi-final with Brazil in Rio de Janeiro.
Carrillo's spot in the side could be taken by Santiago Ormeno, but Gareca is not expected to make any surprise calls elsewhere, despite only using two substitutes in the quarter-finals.
Gianluca Lapadula has scored three times for his country at this summer's competition and will again lead the line, while Christian Cueva and Renato Tapia are both certainties to line up in midfield.
Brazil possible starting lineup:
Ederson; Danilo, Marquinhos, T Silva, Lodi; Casemiro, Fred; Paqueta, Firmino, Richarlison; Neymar
Peru possible starting lineup:
Gallese; Corzo, Ramos, Santamaria, Trauco; Ormeno, Pena, Tapia, Yotun, Cueva; Lapadula
We say: Brazil 2-0 Peru
Peru are more than capable of making this a very difficult contest for Brazil, but we are finding it very difficult to predict anything other than a routine success for Tite's side, who have been strong defensively this summer and have the players going forward to cause Peru plenty of problems.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brazil win with a probability of 67.3%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Peru had a probability of 10.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brazil win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.53%) and 3-0 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (9.93%), while for a Peru win it was 0-1 (5.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 17.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Brazil in this match.
