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Argentina national football team
Copa America | Final
Jul 11, 2021 at 1am UK
 
Brazil national football team

Argentina
1 - 0
Brazil

di Maria (22')
Paredes (33'), Lo Celso (51'), De Paul (68'), Otamendi (81'), Montiel (89')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Fred (3'), Lodi (70'), Paqueta (72'), Marquinhos (82')

Preview: Brazil vs. Argentina - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Copa America clash between Brazil and Argentina, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

The Maracana will play host to a thrilling clash on Sunday, as host nation Brazil and Argentina do battle in the final of this year's Copa America.

With both sides steeped in history in this competition, Brazil will aim to win the trophy for the 10th time, while their opponents would add a 15th Copa America title to their trophy cabinet with a win.

The hosts will aim to retain the title on home turf after triumphing in 2019, while Lionel Scaloni's men go in search of their first piece of major silverware since the turn of the century.


Match preview

Brazil's Casemiro celebrates scoring against Colombia at the Copa America on June 23, 2021© Reuters

Brazil came into this year's edition of the Copa America with major expectations as the pre-tournament favourites, and they got off to a strong start in the group stage with three consecutive wins.

The Selecao started with a 3-0 victory over Venezuela and a 4-0 thrashing of Peru, before they had to show a different side to their game to defeat Colombia.

Their opponents took an early lead through Luis Diaz, and Tite's men had to dig deep in their pursuit of an equaliser, finally drawing level in the 78th minute through Roberto Firmino before Casemiro headed in a corner in the 10th minute of added time to claim their third straight win and make the gap at the top the group insurmountable for the chasing pack.

The defending champions were unable to finish the group stage with a perfect record, though, drawing 1-1 with Ecuador in the final game as Angel Mena drew La Tricolor level after Eder Militao opened the scoring for Brazil.

Brazil's Neymar celebrates scoring their second goal with teammates on June 13, 2021© Reuters

Their first-placed finish saw Tite's men handed a quarter-final tie with Group A's fourth-placed side, although that was a particularly tough draw as the Selecao would take on Chile in Rio de Janeiro.

Lucas Paqueta put Brazil ahead in the first two minutes of the second half, but a red card to Manchester City forward Gabriel Jesus two minutes later meant they had to defend a narrow lead with 10 men for 40 minutes.

They would stand strong to keep a clean sheet and progress to the final four, and Peru awaited Tite's side.

Paqueta again made the difference in that game, scoring in the 35th minute to give Brazil their second consecutive 1-0 win and book their place in Sunday's final.

The Selecao now head into their 21st Copa America final with high expectations, having won nine of those, including the 2019 edition of the tournament.

That tournament again took place in Brazil, and the hosts defeated a resilient Peru side 3-1 in the final as Everton, Jesus and Richarlison got on the scoresheet.

Brazil will now hope for a repeat of that outcome on Sunday, as they aim to retain the title on home turf two years later.

 Argentina manager Lionel Scaloni on June 14, 2021© Reuters

They take on an Argentina side who will look to end a 28-year drought in this tournament with a win at the Olympic Stadium on Sunday.

La Albiceleste had somewhat of a contrasting group campaign to their final opponents, having drawn their opening game before growing into the tournament.

Scaloni's side were held to a 1-1 draw by Chile in their first outing, as Eduardo Vargas drew La Roja level on the hour mark after Lionel Messi netted a pinpoint free kick in the first half.

They quickly started a winning run after that, though, picking up crucial 1-0 victories over Paraguay and fellow group favourites Uruguay in the following matches.

Argentina then finished the group campaign with a 4-1 thrashing of strugglers Bolivia, as Messi hit a brace in between goals from Alejandro Gomez and Lautaro Martinez.

Argentina teammates celebrate scoring their third goal on June 29, 2021© Reuters

Having comfortably topped their group, La Albiceleste were drawn against Ecuador in the quarter-final, and they picked up another dominant win as Rodrigo De Paul got on the scoresheet before goals from Martinez and Messi sealed a 3-0 victory.

Colombia then awaited Scaloni's side in the semi-final, with a much closer game following as the tie went to a penalty shootout as Luis Diaz levelled the game at 1-1 on the hour mark after Martinez's early opener.

La Albiceleste prevailed in the shootout, as Emiliano Martinez denied Davinson Sanchez, Yerry Mina and Edwin Cardona while Messi, Martinez and Leandro Paredes all made no mistake from 12 yards.

That saw them reach the Copa America final for the 29th time, having most recently got to the big stage in 2016, when they fell to a defeat in a penalty shootout at the hands of Chile.

This strong collection of Argentinian talent will now look to go one better and earn their 15th Copa America title to level Uruguay's record.

Brazil Copa America form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W

Argentina Copa America form:
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W



Team News

Argentina's Lionel Messi celebrates scoring their second goal on June 28, 2021© Reuters

Brazil come into the final without forward Gabriel Jesus, who was handed a two-game suspension following a red card for a reckless high challenge in their quarter-final win over Chile.

They have a new crucial attacking component to thrive in Jesus's absence, as Lucas Paqueta has scored the winner in both of their knockout victories so far.

He will support talisman Neymar, who has scored two goals and registered three assists in five Copa America games this year.

At the other end of the pitch, Marquinhos and Thiago Silva should continue to partner up at the heart of the back four, having kept two consecutive clean sheets to guide the Selecao to the final.

Behind them, Ederson will continue to line up between the sticks, having been preferred over Liverpool stopper Alisson in the knockout stage.

Argentina talisman Lionel Messi will lead his nation into the final in a strong run of form, having recorded four goals and five assists in his six appearances at this year's tournament.

He will be joined in attack by Lautaro Martinez, who has found the net in each of their last three games.

He has kept new Barcelona striker Sergio Aguero out of the starting side, while Nicolas Gonzalez, Alejandro Gomez and Angel Di Maria will compete for the spot on the left-hand side of the front three.

The midfield trio of Rodrigo De Paul, Leandro Paredes and Giovani Lo Celso has been particularly impressive in this tournament, and they should all line up in the final to bring balance to the Argentinian side.

Aston Villa goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez has also put in some eye-catching performances in the Copa America, and he will continue to start between the sticks behind a back four that has been consistently altered throughout the competition.

Brazil possible starting lineup:
Ederson; Danilo, Marquinhos, Silva, Sandro; Fred, Casemiro; Richarlison, Paqueta, Everton; Neymar

Argentina possible starting lineup:
E Martinez; Molina, Pezzella, Otamendi, Tagliafico; De Paul, Paredes, Lo Celso; Messi, L Martinez, Gomez


Head To Head

Sunday's final will be the 108th clash between these two nations, with Brazil boasting 43 wins and Argentina having won 39.

However, it is Argentina who boast more competitive victories over their rivals, having won 19 of the 49 games between the sides in competitions, including 15 Copa America victories compared to Brazil's 10.

The teams most recently met in the 2019 semi-final of this tournament, as Brazil knocked La Albiceleste out with a 2-0 win thanks to goals from Gabriel Jesus and Roberto Firmino on their way to lifting the trophy.

This will not be the first time the two nations have squared off in the final either, as Brazil defeated Argentina on the big stage in consecutive finals in 2004 and 2007, firstly winning on penalties after a 2-2 draw before thrashing their rivals 3-0 to retain the title 14 years ago.


SM words green background

We say: Brazil 2-1 Argentina

In what may be the most difficult game of the tournament to predict, this could certainly go either way, and we would not be surprised to see it go to a penalty shootout.

However, we narrowly give the edge to the host nation, who could capitalise on Argentina's relative defensive weaknesses if Paqueta can continue his form alongside the likes of Neymar and Richarlison.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:curl



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brazil win with a probability of 51.54%. A win for Argentina had a probability of 25.43% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brazil win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.82%) and 0-2 (8%). The likeliest Argentina win was 2-1 (6.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Brazil vs Argentina

Brazil
40.0%
Argentina
60.0%
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Brazil players celebrate scoring on June 5, 2021
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