Brasileiro | Gameweek 34
Nov 20, 2021 at 10pm UK
Castelao
Fortaleza1 - 0Palmeiras
Fortaleza welcome Palmeiras to Castelao on Saturday, and the hosts are looking to end a six-game winless run.
The visitors sit in third place in the Campeonato Brasileiro table and will also be aiming to get back to winning ways following two consecutive defeats.
Read more.
Match preview
Fortaleza's aspirations of finishing in the top four have been dented following a recent poor run of results, which has seen them lose five of their last six games. After suffering a heavy 3-0 defeat away to Bragantino last weekend, Fortaleza faltered against their bitter rivals Ceara in midweek. Two Ceara goals in either half condemned Fortaleza to a demoralising 4-0 defeat, which leaves them bereft of confidence ahead of Saturday's contest. In their last six games, Juan Pablo Vojvoda's side have conceded 13 goals and have only managed to net on three occasions in that period. If they are to qualify for next season's Copa Libertadores group stage, then an upturn in form is desperately needed and with 15 league goals between the pair this season, Fortaleza will be looking to Robson and Yago Pikachu for inspiration. After a run of six consecutive victories, Palmeiras were brought back down to earth in their last two fixtures after suffering consecutive defeats. Last weekend, Palmeiras travelled to Fluminense and the visitors took the lead through Dudu, but Yago Felipe bagged a brace to snatch all three points for the hosts. Unfortunately for Abel Ferreira's side, there was no improvement in midweek, when they faced local rivals Sao Paulo and a goal apiece for Gabriel Sara and Luciano condemned Palmeiras to another defeat. Despite disappointing results in their last two games, Palmeiras can take confidence from their away form this season, which has seen them collect 26 points on the road. Part of their success on their travels has come as a result of a solid defence, which has kept seven away clean sheets in the league this term.Fortaleza Brasileiro form:
- W
- L
- L
- D
- L
- L
Fortaleza form (all competitions):
- L
- L
- L
- D
- L
- L
Palmeiras Brasileiro form:
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
- L
Team News
Fortaleza are still expected to be without Lucas Crispim due to a thigh injury. Robson returned from suspension to start against Ceara, and the striker is expected to partner Valentin Depietri in the forward line. Meanwhile, Lucas Lima is expected to come into the starting lineup after missing the game in midweek due to suspension. Dudu will be available for Palmeiras after serving a one-match suspension in midweek, and the 29-year-old is expected to come into the starting lineup. Following their returns from international duty, Gustavo Gomez and Joaquin Piquerez will also start for the visitors. Raphael Veiga has top-scored this season for Palmeiras, and he is likely to have a starting berth for Saturday after dropping to the bench against Sao Paulo. Fortaleza possible starting lineup: Boeck; Tinga, Conceicao, Titi; Pikachu, Lourenco, Jussa, Bruno; Lima, Robson, Depietri Palmeiras possible starting lineup: Weverton; Rocha, Gomez, Luan, Piquerez; Danilo, Ze Rafael, Veiga; Scarpa, Dudu, RonyWe said: Fortaleza 1-1 Palmeiras
We expect this to be a close contest with only three places separating the two sides in the league table, and given the fact that both sides will be low on confidence, we think that they will be content with a point apiece.Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 37.5%. A win for Palmeiras had a probability of 35.06% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.06%) and 2-0 (6.77%). The likeliest Palmeiras win was 0-1 (10.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Fortaleza in this match.
| Result | ||
| Fortaleza | Draw | Palmeiras |
| 37.5% | 27.43% | 35.06% |
| Both teams to score 49.5% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
