Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 37.5%. A win for Palmeiras had a probability of 35.06% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.06%) and 2-0 (6.77%). The likeliest Palmeiras win was 0-1 (10.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Fortaleza in this match.