Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 52.04%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Criciuma had a probability of 22.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.18%) and 1-2 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.07%), while for a Criciuma win it was 1-0 (7.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.