Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 51.59%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Gremio had a probability of 22.37%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.28%) and 2-1 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.2%), while for a Gremio win it was 0-1 (8.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.