On a run of four draws on the trot in the Primeira Liga, Pacos de Ferreira square off against Braga at the Estadio Braga Municipal on Saturday.
The Pacenses will head into the game seeking to get one over the hosts, having failed to win any of the last four meetings between the sides since January 2021.
Match preview
© Reuters
Braga were denied their third win on the bounce last Saturday when they fell to a 2-1 defeat at the hands of Vitoria de Guimaraes at the Dom Afonso Henriques.
In a game where Alfa Semedo received his marching orders, Oscar Estupinan and substitute Nelson Luz scored either side of Vitor Oliveira's 48th-minute equaliser to hand the hosts all three points.
Prior to that, Carlos Carvalhal's men ended their two-game winless run courtesy of a 2-1 victory over reigning champions Sporting Lisbon on January 22 before securing a 2-0 win over Moreirense eight days later.
Braga, who have struggled for consistency for most of the season, head into Saturday's game with two wins from their five league games, losing two and claiming one draw in that time.
With 38 points from 21 games, Os Arcebispos are currently fourth in the Primeira Liga standings, four points above Gil Vicente in the final Conference League qualification spot.
© Reuters
Pacos de Ferreira, on the other hand, were involved in a share of the spoils once again as they were held to a 1-1 draw by Portimonense at the Estadio Capital do Movel last time out.
After holding onto a one-goal lead for most of the game courtesy of Lucas Possignolo's 15th-minute own goal, debutant Welinton Junior came up trumps for the visitors as he restored parity in the 91st minute.
Cesar Peixoto's men have now failed to win any of their last five league games since a 2-1 win over Santa Clara in the final game of 2021, falling to a 2-0 defeat against Benfica on January 9 before settling for a share of the spoils in their subsequent four games.
With 21 points from 21 games, Pacos de Ferreira are currently 12th in the league standings, but could leapfrog Vizela and Santa Clara and rise into the top half of the table with all three points on Saturday.
However, standing in their way is an opposing side who they have failed to defeat in each of the last four meetings between the sides, while picking up just one win from their last seven meetings since 2019.
- W
- D
- L
- W
- W
- L
- W
- L
- D
- D
- D
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Carvalhal remains unable to call upon the services of 31-year-old defender Nuno Sequeira, who picked up a knee injury in November's 6-1 defeat against Benfica.
Brazilian midfielder Lucas Minero is set to sit out his fourth consecutive game after sustaining a muscle problem in the game against Maritimo back in January.
Another name on the club's injury list is 22-year-old defender David Carmo, who has been out of action for over a year through a severe knee injury.
Pacos de Ferreira, on the other, will take to the pitch without defender Joao Vigario, who has been sidelined since last August after sustaining a severe knee problem.
Fellow countryman Joao Silva is also out of contention for the Pacenses as he continues his spell on the sidelines after also sustaining a muscle problem back in August.
Brazilian defender Flavio will also play no part in Saturday's game after sustaining an injury in the game against Maritimo back in November.
Braga possible starting lineup:
Matheus; Tormena, P Oliveira, Leite; Silva, Castro, Moura, Al Musrati; V Oliveira, R Horta, Ruiz
Pacos de Ferreira possible starting lineup:
Ferreira; Antunes, Lima, Baixinho, Delgado; Carlos, Pires; Uliton, Uilton, Santos; Denilson
We say: Braga 2-0 Pacos de Ferreira
Braga have struggled for consistency this season and this has been a major cause of concern for manager Carvalhal, whose side have won three and lost three of their last seven games. However, they will fancy their chances against a struggling Pacos de Ferreira side who are without a win in any of their last five games. We predict a thrilling contest on Saturday with the hosts coming out victorious.
Top tip
Joshua Ojele
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 73.23%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 9.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.61%) and 3-0 (10.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.26%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 0-1 (3.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
