Botswana began their 2021 COSAFA Cup campaign with a 1-0 defeat to hosts South Africa, who currently sit three points above Botswana in second place in the fight to progress out of Group A.

It was a much improved performance from Letang Kgengwenyane's side in their second match this summer, as a hat-trick from Tumisang Orebonye followed by a strike from Thatayaone Kgamanyane sealed a 4-0 win against Lesotho.

However, going into the game on Wednesday Eswatini will have had a four-day rest from their last game, while Botswana must play Zambia on Tuesday, 24 hours prior to this match.

To progress out of the group stage Botswana will likely have to win both of their remaining fixtures, and if three points against Eswatini follows on from a victory against Zambia, Botswana will leapfrog Wednesday's opponents on the final day of the group.

Botswana have had strong runs in the COSAFA Cup in recent years, most recently finishing as runners-up in the last tournament in 2019, but they have never managed to go one more step and win this competition.

As for Eswatini, in 2019 they failed to progress out of the group stages, but have given themselves a good chance to better that performance this time around.

A convincing 3-1 win against Lesotho in the opening game got Dominic Kunene's side off to a strong start, the goals coming from Felix Badenhorst, Khethokuhle Mkhontfo and Fanelo Mamba on that occasion.

Two days later, Eswatini suffered defeat against South Africa and midfielder Badenhorst was shown a second yellow card just before half time.

Sandile Gamedze came into the starting 11 against Zambia in the absence of the suspended Badenhorst, and he proved to be worthy of his place as the midfielder scored after 53 minutes to seal a 1-0 victory for his nation.

Eswatini go into this fixture knowing that three points will confirm their place in the last four, and they will be able to continue their search for their first COSAFA Cup triumph.

Botswana COSAFA Cup form:

Eswatini COSAFA Cup form:

Team News

Botswana striker Orebonye will be full of confidence from taking home the match ball against Lesotho on the weekend, and his nation will need him to be firing in their final two games to catch the current top two in Group A.

Kgengwenyane's side will be at a slight disadvantage going into the game against Eswatini having played a match the previous day, however with it being the final game of the group, added motivation to qualify could mask any tiredness the Botswana players may feel.

Badenhorst served his one-match suspension last time out against Zambia, and he is expected to return to Eswatini's starting 11, despite Gamedze's important impact when he came into the side on Saturday.

Kunene opted for a 4-3-3 formation in their last game, but previously played a 4-2-3-1 formation at the beginning of the COSAFA Cup, and with the return of Badenhorst, we expect the manager to revert back to the latter shape.

Sabelo Ndzinisa has led the line for Eswatini in their first three 2021 COSAFA Cup games but is yet to find the back of the net in South Africa, with his last goal for his country coming back in May 2019.

Botswana possible starting lineup:
Morake; Johnson, Gaolaolwe, Kebue, Leinanyane; Mohutsiwa, Mpolokang; Setsile, Kgamanyane, Elias; Orebonye

Eswatini possible starting lineup:
Mathabela; Magagula, Mamba, Mkhwanazi, Msibi; Mkhontfo, Mabelesa; Figuaredo, Badenhorst, Mamba; Ndzinisa

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We say: Botswana 1-2 Eswatini

Botswana could come into this fixture level on points with Eswatini with victory against Zambia and that would give the side a big boost in confidence and energy to follow that up with three points on Wednesday.

However, Eswatini have had a longer rest period between this game and their last, which they must capitalise on to seal their place in the semi-final.

Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Written by
Sammy Wynne

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Eswatini win with a probability of 50.71%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Botswana had a probability of 23.47%.

The most likely scoreline for a Eswatini win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.81%) and 2-1 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.19%), while for a Botswana win it was 0-1 (8%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.