Kazakhstan and Bosnia-Herzegovina head into Saturday's World Cup qualifier knowing that victory will catapult them back into contention for second place in Group D.
While the two nations sit in fourth and fifth place respectively, three points in Nur-Sultan could move them past Ukraine and Finland.
Match preview
© Reuters
There are not many nations who have failed to win the first half of their group fixtures that still stand any realistic chance of qualifying for next year's World Cup.
However, that does not apply to Bosnia-Herzegovina who, having already played France twice, sit just two points off claiming a playoff spot with a game in hand.
Conceding a last-minute equaliser in the home fixture with Kazakhstan came as a huge disappointment, but no damage was done in a group full of stalemates.
Games away in Kazakhstan and Ukraine over the space of three days is going to be tough on the bodies, particularly with everything that is at stake.
Nevertheless, with a rejuvenated Edin Dzeko in the final third, anything is possible for this Bosnia-Herzegovina side over the coming days.
© Reuters
Opponents Kazakhstan have failed to win any of their last 12 fixtures in all competitions, a period lasting since their narrow triumph away in Lithuania 13 months ago.
That said, Talgat Baysufinov will insist that his group of players are full of confidence after earning each of their three points in this group having come from behind.
The latest of their dramatic recoveries came in Zenica last time out, Bakhtiyar Zaynutdinov taking his tally for his country to eight strikes from just 18 caps.
The 23-year-old is yet to hit the ground running at CSKA Moscow, but he will back himself to deliver on the international scene for the second game in succession.
- L
- D
- D
- L
- D
- L
- D
- L
- D
- L
- D
- D
- L
- D
- D
- L
- D
- L
- D
- W
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Bosnia-Herzegovina have been dealt a blow ahead of this fixture with key midfielder Miralem Pjanic missing out through injury.
Sinisa Sanicanin is also missing for the visitors, leaving Aleksandar Jovicic and Amir Hadziahmetovic as alternatives in their place.
Luka Menalo will hope to be considered for a recall after scoring as a substitute last time out.
Kazakhstan are without captain Askhat Tagybergen, so Samat Zharynbetov could be provided with just his third cap in midfield.
Artur Shushenachev is also absent from the squad this time around, and Oralkhan Omirtayev may benefit with his first cap in two years.
Kazakhstan possible starting lineup:
Shatskiy; Logvinenko, Maliy, Marochkin; Bystrov, Zharynbetov, Kuat, Vorogovskiy; Vasiljev, Zhukov; Omirtayev
Bosnia-Herzegovina possible starting lineup:
Sehic; Jovicic, Ahmedhozic, Hadzikadunic; Stevanovic, Hadziahmetovic, Nalic, Cimirot, Kolasinac; Demirovic, Dzeko
We say: Kazakhstan 1-2 Bosnia-Herzegovina
With neither team having a win to their name thus far, this is a tricky fixture to call. However, Dzeko has been a revelation on the club scene since joining Inter, and we feel that the legendary Bosnian could prove to be the difference at the weekend.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kazakhstan win with a probability of 41.78%. A win for Bosnia-Herzegovina had a probability of 31.61% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kazakhstan win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.69%) and 2-0 (7.5%). The likeliest Bosnia-Herzegovina win was 0-1 (9.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.
