As we head into the final matchday of the Ligue 2 campaign, Bordeaux and Rodez AF each have plenty to play for when they face each other on Friday at Matmut Atlantique.
For Les Girondins, their most straightforward path to promotion will occur with a win or draw combined with a defeat from Metz, while a victory by Rodez will likely be enough to stave off relegation, as they are currently tied with Laval but with a much better goal differential (-6 to -13).
Match preview
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When the standings are as tight as they have been throughout the Ligue 2 campaign, one slip-up and all your hard work could be for naught.
That might be the case for David Guion and his Bordeaux side, who dropped out of a promotional place last week with a 1-0 loss at Annecy, ending a five-match unbeaten run.
Currently tied with Metz on 69 points and just three back of the league leaders Le Havre, Bordeaux can still earn a promotion with a loss, so long as either of those teams suffer lopsided results, though Les Girondins have an inferior goal difference to both, at +24, with Metz at +27 and Le Havre at +26.
There is also still a chance that they capture the Ligue 2 title with a victory by three goals or more, along with a Le Havre defeat and a loss or draw by Metz.
Bordeaux have been virtually untouchable this season at home, on a five-match winning run at Matmut Atlantique heading into this contest, without a goal conceded over that stretch.
Under Guion, this team have shown a much stronger defensive commitment than a season ago, conceding the second-fewest goals in Ligue 2 (27) after allowing the most in the top flight in 2021-22 (91).
Should they fail to climb into the top two, Les Girondins will only have themselves to blame, letting 10 points slip through their fingertips when leading in the second half of this domestic campaign.
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After a solid springtime in which Rodez dropped points in only two league fixtures from the beginning of March until the end of April, this team have suddenly cooled off with just two points in their last four games.
That means there is still work to do for Didier Santini, who took charge in November when they were in the relegation zone, as Laval and Dijon are now breathing down their necks with just one point separating 18th place from 16th.
It took this team 26 years to get back into one of the top two divisions, earning a promotion into Ligue 2 in April 2019, and their lack of finishing this season could be the reason they drop down to the Championnat National.
They have put together some solid road performances in the league of late but have succumbed to the pressure at the most inopportune of moments, conceding a winning goal beyond the 75th minute in two of their previous three away defeats in this competition.
Before their 3-2 loss at home to Pau last Friday, they had been a challenging team to penetrate along the backline, conceding a goal or fewer in nine straight league games.
Le RAF have lost their two previous encounters against Bordeaux, failing to find the scoresheet back in August (3-0) and again in their first meeting at the 2009-10 Coupe de France (1-0).
Though they have only captured one of their last four league fixtures away from home, this has still been a strong road team, claiming at least a point on 12 occasions.
Team News
Issouf Sissokho is unlikely to feature for Bordeaux in this encounter because of a leg injury, while Guion had the same starting 11 versus Annecy from their previous match against Laval.
Yoann Barbet, Zuriko Davitashvili and Stian Rode Gregersen scored in their previous home fixture, as they defeated Laval 3-0, while Gaetan Poussin made two stops to collect a clean sheet.
In their earlier meeting with Rodez last August, Poussin did not have to make a single save, as Danylo Ihnatenko, Dilane Bakwa, and Marvin De Lima each found the mark in a 3-0 triumph.
Rodez will be without Loris Mouyokolo for this match as he is still recovering from his ruptured Achilles tendon, while Remy Boissier, Akim Abdallah and Joseph Mendes replaced Louis Torres, Antoine Valerio and Sambou Soumano in the starting 11 versus Pau.
Boissier and Wilitty Younoussa scored in their defeat last Friday, while Kilian Corredor had the only goal in their previous road fixture, which they drew 1-1 at Grenoble.
Their leading goalscorer in this competition, Clement Depres, is without a goal since April 22, which was also the last time Lionel Mpasi picked up a clean sheet away from home in a 3-0 win for Rodez over Annecy.
Bordeaux possible starting lineup:
Poussin; Bokele, Rode Gregersen, Barbet, N'Simba; Davitashvili, Mwanga, Fransergio, Bakwa; Badji, Maja
Rodez AF possible starting lineup:
Mpasi; Danger, Vandenabeele, Raux-Yao; Senaya, Younoussa, Boissier, Rajot, Chougrani; Soumano, Corredor
We say: Bordeaux 1-0 Rodez AF
Bordeaux have an experienced group that should know how to handle a must-win situation, and we expect their solid backline to keep the visitors at bay in this one.
Rodez are more than comfortable playing away from home, but they lack that poise needed when the pressure begins to mount, something which may cost them on Friday.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
