Birmingham City Women must start winning matches if they want to make up the current five-point gap to safety, but they face a tough test on Sunday, when fourth-placed Tottenham Hotspur Ladies visit St Andrew's.
Spurs are just one point behind the top three in the Women's Super League, and firmly have a Champions League qualification spot in sight, but they need to turn their recent form around for the better, starting this weekend.
Match preview
© Reuters
A crucial game at the foot of the WSL took place last weekend, when Leicester City travelled to Birmingham, but Darren Carter's side fell to a 2-1 defeat, allowing the Foxes to open up a gap at the bottom of the table.
Goalkeeper Emily Ramsey was shown a straight red card in the 26th minute, and the hosts failed to recover from that point onwards as they entered half time two goals down.
That means the Blues have still only recorded one win this season, and with the worst defensive record in the division, the situation at Birmingham is increasingly worrying.
The Blues have conceded 36 goals in 14 matches, and they are likely to need to record at least two wins and a draw in their remaining eight games to maintain their top-flight status.
Carter's side still have to play three of the current top four teams in the WSL, including this weekend's outing against Tottenham, but they will be looking to replicate their victory against league leaders Arsenal, which they secured at the beginning of 2022.
© Reuters
Spurs got back on track last time out with a comfortable 4-0 win over Brighton & Hove Albion, and that was vital for Rehanne Skinner's side, who had lost their previous three matches in all competitions.
Goals from Ashleigh Neville, Shelina Zadorsky and a brace from Kyah Simon sealed that victory, with Spurs also limiting their visitors to no shots on target, an all round good performance from Tottenham.
That should stand them in good stead heading into Sunday's encounter, which they are expected to win, but Skinner will have to make sure her side do not go into this game with a complacent mindset, as they must collect three points to keep the pressure on Manchester United in third.
Tottenham have scored 17 goals in 13 matches this campaign, at least 11 fewer than the top three, but a strong defence has been key for Spurs and they will definitely have their sights set on another clean sheet on Sunday.
Skinner's side secured a narrow 1-0 victory over Birmingham in the reverse fixture in September, when Kit Graham's first-half strike was enough to seal three points for the home team.
- L
- L
- W
- L
- L
- L
- L
- W
- L
- L
- W
- L
- L
- W
- W
- D
- L
- W
- D
- W
- L
- L
- L
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Birmingham were successful in their appeal against Ramsey's red card, so the Blues' number one will be able to retain her place between the posts for the hosts.
Carter is likely to set his side up in a 3-5-2 formation, with Jade Pennock and Libby Smith leading the line, while Gemma Lawley, Louise Quinn and Rebecca Holloway make up the defensive trio.
Simon's appearance for Spurs against Brighton last weekend was her first since the middle of December, and she is expected to start again this weekend, in a front three with Rachel Williams and new signing Eveliina Summanen.
Angela Addison has featured in all but one of Spurs' WSL matches this season, but the midfielder was handed her first start of the campaign last Sunday, and could remain in Skinner's starting 11.
Goalkeeper Becky Spencer came back into the side also, and she will remain between the posts with a back four including Zadorsky, Kerys Harrop, Molly Bartrip and Ashleigh in front of her.
Birmingham City Women possible starting lineup:
Ramsey; Holloway, Louise Quinn, Lawley; Robertson, Sarri, Murray, Lucy Quinn, Scott; Pennock, Smith
Tottenham Hotspur Ladies possible starting lineup:
Spencer; Harrop, Zadorsky, Bartrip, Neville; Addison, Percival, Clemaron; Summanen, Williams, Simon
We say: Birmingham City Women 1-2 Tottenham Hotspur Ladies
Birmingham are expected to make the game difficult for Tottenham and put up a good fight, as they are playing to save their WSL status, which is why they could get on the scoresheet.
However, Spurs are favourites for this encounter and after a strong result and performance last weekend, they are likely to follow that up with another three points.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tottenham Hotspur Ladies win with a probability of 37.92%. A win for Birmingham City Women had a probability of 34.44% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tottenham Hotspur Ladies win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.07%) and 0-2 (6.93%). The likeliest Birmingham City Women win was 1-0 (10.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Tottenham Hotspur Ladies would win this match.
