Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bermuda win with a probability of 48.51%. A win for Antigua and Barbuda had a probability of 30.21% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bermuda win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.99%) and 2-0 (5.51%). The likeliest Antigua and Barbuda win was 1-2 (6.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Bermuda in this match.