Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union SG win with a probability of 43.52%. A win for Genk had a probability of 32.33% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union SG win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.17%) and 2-0 (6.62%). The likeliest Genk win was 1-2 (7.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.16%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Union SG would win this match.