Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union SG win with a probability of 42.38%. A win for Mechelen had a probability of 33.99% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union SG win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.29%) and 0-2 (6.05%). The likeliest Mechelen win was 2-1 (7.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.