Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 62.77%. A draw had a probability of 19.5% and a win for Sint-Truiden had a probability of 17.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.9%) and 1-0 (8.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.81%), while for a Sint-Truiden win it was 1-2 (4.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Genk would win this match.