Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leuven win with a probability of 53.08%. A win for Sint-Truiden had a probability of 23.54% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leuven win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.77%) and 2-0 (8.87%). The likeliest Sint-Truiden win was 0-1 (6.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.02%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Leuven would win this match.