Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leuven win with a probability of 45.52%. A win for Mechelen had a probability of 31.33% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leuven win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.26%) and 2-0 (6.39%). The likeliest Mechelen win was 1-2 (7.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.36%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Leuven would win this match.