Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Torpedo-BelAZ win with a probability of 53.53%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Vitebsk had a probability of 21.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Torpedo-BelAZ win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.16%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.73%), while for a Vitebsk win it was 0-1 (7.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Torpedo-BelAZ in this match.